OSCAR PREDICTIONS ARE HERE!!! IMPRESS YOUR FRIENDS!!!

As the BAFTAs bring pre Oscar season to a close (no I do not count the Spirit Awards), and with just five days left before Oscar Ballots need to be in for tally, we can begin the most entertaining project of the year, compiling predictions for every Oscar category.  Brace yourself for a flurry of trivia that will be sure to make you the smartest of your friends and family come March 2nd.  Here we go:

Best Picture

American Hustle

Captain Phillips

Dallas Buyers Club

Gravity

Her

Nebraska

Philomena

12 Years a Slave

The Wolf of Wall Street

Will and Should Win- 12 Years a Slave

There is no evidence in Oscar history to disprove that 12 Years a Slave will not win.  Although both Gravity (the Best Director favorite) and American Hustle both received the most nominations, 12 Years a Slave has the Golden Globe, Critics Choice and Producer’s Guild, and is poised to win the BAFTAs top prize.  The only thing missing from this résumé is a DGA win, which went to Gravity, causing many to believe that Gravity is the favorite.  However, this is not true.  Everything that history has told us will result in a sharing of awards, the lion’s share going to Gravity, but 12 Years taking home Best Picture á la Shakespeare in Love splitting with Saving Private Ryan.  Then there’s the guys who actually orchestrated the Shakespeare in Love Oscar run, and there film American Hustle.  We cannot denounce the film’s presence, but if we’re going by Vegas betting odds, American Hustle will win nothing, since it is not favored in any category.  Queue the dramatics…?

One more thing to get straight, the other nominated films are very good (especially Her), however, they have absolutely NO chance at taking home Best Picture.  3 films with a chance is definitely a crowd, so sorry to crush your dreams of a Philomena Best Picture, but it just won’t happen, and it’s better that you find out this way, rather than pull a Mitt Romney.

Best Director

12 Years a Slave - Steve McQueen

American Hustle- David O. Russell

Gravity- Alfonso Cuarón

Nebraska- Alexander Payne

The Wolf of Wall Street- Martin Scorsese

Will and Should win- Alfonso Cuarón

I would’ve liked to see Spike Jonze be up this year.  If subtlety is really what the Academy voters are nominating, then why David O. Russell?  Anyway, the only argument needed to put money down on this is the fact that Cuarón won the DGA award, which has been the uber-predictor of this race for some time.  Gravity’s tie with 12 Years a Slave at the Producers Guild just lets everyone know that they are not going to count out Gravity from top awards, but this is really the only award it’s favored to win.  I would not take a parlay on either Gravity or 12 Years to sweep Picture/Director, but it is interesting that no African-American or Latin American has ever won Best Director, and this year will basically be one or the other.  Vive La Diversité!

Best Actor

12 Years a Slave- Chiwetel Ejiofer

American Hustle- Christian Bale

Dallas Buyers Club- Matthew McConaughey

Nebraska- Bruce Dern

The Wolf of Wall Street- Leonardo Dicaprio

Will Win- Matthew McConaughey

Should Win- Bruce Dern

Again, I’m going to start by expressing my befuddlement and subtle anger that Tom Hanks wasn’t nominated, despite “I’m the Captain Phillips now!” Best Picture nod.  Matthew McConaughey won the Globe and the SAG, there’s no stopping him.  Burce Dern was hanging tough until then, and I would really like to see someone win for not playing a real life person or drug addict (or both as in McConaughey’s case).  Dallas Buyers Club was awesome though, and McConaughey winning is a good way to not only honor is awesome last TWO years, but show the fans that the don’t care how many shitty movies you make, if you’re GOOD, you’re good.  Period. 

And no talk of Leo winning.  A leading actor who was not nominated for the SAG has never won an Oscar.

Best Actress

American Hustle- Amy Adams

August: Osage County- Meryl Streep

Blue Jasmine- Cate Blanchett

Gravity- Sandra Bullock

Philomena- Judi Dench

Will and Should Win-Cate Blanchett

A great group of previous winners and Amy Adams.  This category is a wash, Cate Blanchett has won every award for this film known to human kind, and even she believes she will win.  She is realistically going to get the most votes of any nominee in any category.  Don’t bet against her.

My girl from Blue is the Warmest Color, Adele Exarchopoulos, was absolutely outstanding this year, and I’m not saying she would have put up any kind of contention against Blanchett, but she and the film certainly deserve some recognition, despite its NC-17 rating.

Best Supporting Actor

12 Years a Slave- Michael Fassbinder

American Hustle- Bradley Cooper

Captain Phillips- Barkhad Abdi

Dallas Buyers Club- Jared Leto

The Wolf of Wall Street- Jonah Hill

Will and Should win- Jared Leto

Yeah, don’t even think twice about this, Jared Leto’s story is awesome and he has a ton of fans.  He was also brilliant in Dallas Buyers Club, a role that is poised to win an Oscar.  None of the other guys can compete.

Best Supporting Actress

12 Years a Slave- Lupita Nyong'o

American Hustle- Jennifer Lawrence

August: Osage County- Julia Roberts

Blue Jasmine- Sally Hawkins

Nebraska- June Squibb

Will win- Jennifer Lawrence

Should win- Lupita Nyong’o

This is the only real race.  It’s almost a coin flip between Nyong’o and Jennifer Lawrence, but Lawrence just won last year, and was miscast in American Hustle in my opinion.  Nyong’o had a powerful performance, and being previously unknown, is a raw standout, compared to Lawrence, who was the top grossing film star of 2013.  Really tough to call, but American Hustle has to be the favorite in some category right?  Don't really agree, but with the BAFTA win, it's clear J Law has the base to take this one away from a SAG winner.

Best Original Screenplay

American Hustle- David O. Russell and Eric Singer

Blue Jasmine- Woody Allen

Dallas Buyers Club- Craig Borten and Melisa Wallack

Her- Spike Jonze

Nebraska- Bob Nelson

Will and Should win- Her

If you thought the last category was close, this is even closer.  It’s a total toss between Her and American Hustle.  Her has won more script awards, but Hustle has yet to relly be favored in anything.  With Weinstein backing, we could easily see a turn of tables here.  I doubt there will be a third contender that would benefit from a split, but if there was it would be Woody Allen, who has won this category three times.

Best Adapted Screenplay

12 Years a Slave- John Ridley

Before Midnight- Julie Deply, Ethan Hawke and Richard Linklater

Captain Phillips- Billy Ray

Philomena- Steve Coogan and Jeff Pope

The Wolf of Wall Street- Terence Winter

Will and Should win- 12 Years a Slave

This is another walkover.  The only reason 12 Years doesn’t have a Writers Guild Award credit is because it was deemed ineligible, allowing Captain Phillips to take it.  Don’t be fooled, because that means nothing (see: last year- Quentin Tarantino).

Best Animated Feature

The Croods

Despicable Me 2

Ernest & Celestine

Frozen

The Wind Rises

Will Win- Frozen

Should Win-The Wind Rises

I haven’t really seen any of these, but they’re already making Frozen into a Broadway musical.  Everybody loves Frozen, even little kids.  In theory, The Wind Rises, should have a shot, being Miyazaki’s last film ever and having a release two weeks before the awards, but a lot of critics have expressed that it’s only for true fans of Miyazaki, and he’s already lost this category once.  Of course the film is still brilliant.

Best Foreign Language Film

The Broken Circle Breakdown (Belgium)

The Great Beauty (Italy(

The Hunt (Denmark)

The Missing Picture (Cambodia)

Omar (Palestine)

Will Win- The Great Beauty

Should Win- The Hunt

Foreign Film always brings a surprise.  The Great Beauty was nominated for the Golden Palm, is still in LA theaters and has won the Golden Globe.  But I can never call any Foreign Film a sure thing.  The Hunt has achieved regular acclaim and was up for the Golden Palm in 2012.  If you want a huge underdog pick, go with Cambodia’s first ever nominee with The Missing Picture, which is poised for release two weeks after the awards.  Sometimes, this category will award a film that has a release immediately after the awards to promote it, and they have taken awards awat from completely brilliant films like The Hunt and The Great Beauty.  The odds on it are currently 50-1, and I LIKE THOSE ODDS!

Best Documentary Feature

The Act of Killing

Cutie and the Boxer

Dirty Wars

The Square

Twenty Feet From Stardom

Will and Should win- The Act of Killing

This is another tough one.  The Square just took home the DGA, and honestly, it’s that good that it could be a favorite, but The Act of Killing has received consistent praise, along with a number of top ten lists, including the Sight and Sound Best Film of 2013.

I would also not count out 20 Feet From Stardom, a definite force being the highest grossing documentary of the bunch by a clear mile.  Definitely something a lot of documentary filmmakers would love to say.

Best Original Score

The Book Thief- John Williams

Gravity- Steven Price

Her- William Butler and Owen Pallett

Philomena- Alexandre Desplat

Saving Mr. Banks- Thomas Newman

Will Win- Gravity

Should Win- Her

This will either be Gravity or Her, unless we see voters take a turn back to big orchestral pieces.  Gravity makes the most sense since the score went extremely well with the impact of the scene, without being too “Pacific Rim” Her is a close second, and Saving Mr. Banks has an outside chance since it was shut out of everything else.

Best Original Song

"Happy" from Despicable Me 2- Pharrell Williams (Music and Lyrics)

"Let it Go" from Frozen- Kristen Anderson Lopez and Robert Lopez (Music and Lyrics)

"The Moon Song" from Her- Karen O (Music), Karen O and Spike Jonze (Lyrics)

"Ordinaty Love" from Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom- Paul Hewson, Dave Evans, Adam Clayton and Larry Mullen (Music), Paul Hewson (Lyrics)

Will Win- “Let it Go”

Should Win-“Alone yet not Alone”. ONLY KIDDING

Yeah, I know “Ordinary Love” won the Golden Globe, but Mandela didn’t have a sing-a-long. 

Best Cinematography

The Grandmaster- Philippe Le Sourd

Gravity- Emmanuel Lubezki

Inside Llewyn Davis- Bruno Delbonnel

Nebraska- Phendon Papamichael

Prisoners- Roger A. Deakins

Will and Should Win- Gravity

Easy one, Lubezki has been up five previous times and not won once.  This is a sure thing.

Best Costume Design

12 Years a Slave- Patricia Norris

American Hustle- Michael Wilkinson

The Grandmaster- William Chang Suk Ping

The Great Gatsby- Catherine Martin

The Invisible Woman- Michael O'Connor

Will Win- The Great Gatsby

Should Win- The Grandmaster

This could be the one American Hustle sneaks away with, but my money is on Gatsby.  The Grandmaster had excellent costumes, but unlikely that it was seen by everyone.  I doubt 12 Years a Slave has a shot, but it’s the definite third wheel in the race, thus completing a five win night.

Best FIlm Editing

12 Years a Slave- Joe Walker

American Hustle- Jay Cassidy, Crispin Struthers, Alan Baumgarten

Captain Phillips- Christopher Rouse

Dallas Buyers Club- John Mac McMurphy and Martin Pensa

Gravity- Alfonso Cuaron and Mark Sanger

Will Win- Gravity

Should Win- 12 Years a Slave

Ahhh, the Gravity technical award sweep continues.  Really surprised if Captain Phillips or 12 Years take this.

Best Makeup/Hairstyling

Dallas Buyers Club- Adruitha Lee and Robin Mathews

Jackass Presents: Bad Grandpa- Stephen Prouty

The Lone Ranger- Joel Harlow and Gloria Pasqua-Casny

Will and Should Win- Dallas Buyers Club

If the makeup people have a sense of humor, Bad Grandpa would win.  Have you met a makeup person with a sense of humor?  Well, maybe, but those people probably loved Dallas Buyers Club.

Best Production Design

12 Years a Slave- Adam Stockhausen (Production Design) Alice Baker (Set Decoration)

American Hustle- Judy Becker (Production Design), Heather Loeffler (Set Decoration)

Gravity- Andy Nicholson (Production Design) Rose Goodwin and Joanne Woodward (Set Decoration)

The Great Gatsby- Catherine Martin (Production Design), Beverly Dunn (Set Decoration)

Her- K.K. Barrett (Production Design) Gene Serdena (Set Decoration)

Will Win- The Great Gatsby

Should Win- Her

This one is totally up for grabs by anyone of these films.  The cool thing about this category is, there is so much politics that Gatsby’s beautiful and elaborate production design, may take home the top prize.  The Art Director’s Guild Awards doesn’t help much with this, giving prizes to Gatsby, Gravity and Her.  You should probably choose your winner from those three.

Best Sound Mixing

Captain Phillips- Chris Burdon, Mark Taylor, Mike Prestwood Smith and Chris Munro

Gravity- Skip Lievsay, Niv Adiri, Christopher Benstead and Chris Munro

The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug- Christopher Boyes, Michael Hedges, Michael Semanick and Tony Johnson

Inside Llewyn Davis- Skip Lievsay, Greg Orloff and Peter F. Kurland

Lone Survivior- Andy Koyama, Beau Borders and David Brownlow

Will and Should Win-Gravity

I’m still going with Gravity for all the tech stuff.

 Best Sound Editing

All is Lost- Steve Boeddeker and Richard Hymns

Captain Phillips- Oliver Tarney

Gravity- Glenn Freemantle

The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug- Brent Burge

Lone Survivor- Wylie Stateman

Will and Should win- Gravity

Well, Gravity was the best movie out of all of them, right?

Best Visual Effects

Gravity- Tim Webber, Chris Lawrence, Dave Shirk and Neil Corbould

The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug- Joe Letteri, Eric Saindon, David Clayton and Eric Reynolds

Iron Man 3- Christopher Townsend, Guy Williams, Erik Nash and Dan Sudick

The Lone Ranger- Tim Alexander, Gary Brozenich, Edson Williams and John Frazier

Star Trek Into Darkness- Roger Guyett, Patrick Tubach, Ben Grossman and Burt Dalton

Will and Should win- Gravity

Gravity can be shut out of every other category but will never lose this one.  If my predictions are right, this should complete a set of six awards for the film.

Thanks for reading!

This will also be in a tab when I post next, until then, happy viewing.

Pre BAFTA video, in case you need to know what's going on

Matthew McConaughey wins SAG for Best Actor?

Two years ago, the world would be on the floor laughing had they heard that Matthew McConaughey was the HUGE front runner to win the Oscar for Best Actor.  Since a flurry of impressive films, Mr. McConaughey, with his film Dallas Buyers Club, has managed to capture the Golden Globe for Best Actor- Drama, and now, both the Critics Church Award and SAG award for Best Actor in a Feature Film.  We can now say, he's been winning everything, although he's not even nominated for a BAFTA award, we can still safely bet on him to win the Oscar.

A couple other interesting plot lines occurred Saturday night.  Lupita Nyong'o managed to follow up her Critics Choice Awards Supporting Actress win for 12 Years a Slave with a win at the SAG awards as well, making her also the likely candidate for the Oscar.  This is a surprise to some, probably the ones who haven't seen or liked the film, because Nyong'o is brilliant.

American Hustle took home Best Cast, which really doesn't increase it's chances at winning Best Picture at the Oscars.  The Oscars may opt to be like the Globes this year, spreading the love around as much as possible, meaning American Hustle could walk away with nothing BUT Best Picture (which hasn't happened since 1935).  It is interesting to note how close the Best Picture Oscar race really is, American Hustle, the "average's people's comedy film" and 12 Years a Slave, the "heavy-hitting historical drama" duke it out as the two films that are were up for both Best Cast at the SAGs and Best Picture at the Oscars (as was Dallas Buyers Club, but for left out for the reason that it has no shot of winning Best Picture).

Only once has a film won the Best Picture Oscar and has not even been nominated for the SAG award for Best Cast in the 20 year history of the SAGs (Braveheart in 1995).  So, we can probably discount Gravity's chances at winning Best Picture at the Oscars, but 12 Years a Slave and American Hustle have both won Best Picture at the Golden Globes, and each has been evenly matched as Best Picture Oscar contenders.  If Gravity's Alfonso Cuarôn wins the DGA Award, that will make things even more difficult...

At least the remaining acting categories will be easy, as Blue Jasmine's Cate Blanchett continued her sweep of all Best Actress awards with a SAG and Critics Choice award.  Ditto for Dallas Buyer's Club supporting actor Jared Leto.

And finally, the PGA claimed Best Picutre a tie between 12 Years a Slave and Gravity. so a wild weekend overall, as the PGA has never had a tie winner before.  Next up is the Directors Guild this Friday, the sole, biggest predictor of the Oscars, then it's all catching up until March 2nd, happy viewing!

86th Oscar nominees- no guts, no glory...and no shame

So does everyone believe me now that Dallas Buyers Club was NOT a surprise?  Another painfully obvious stat, the Oscars once again nominate nine films under the new rules (now in all three years the rule has been adopted), like we don't know full well that there's enough "cooperation" with the Academy voters to actually put up ten (but that would be waaaaaay too obvious).

So, if you're one of those people like me, we get to spend money going to watch all 9 movies, but hey, when else would I watch Philomena?

Speaking of Philomena, its nomination for Best Picture tops the surprise category from Thursday morning's announcements.  This will make a lot of viewers happy, and also cause a lot of good press for such a great film, despite not being the type of film the local homies would see.  Here's a couple of more surprises:

Inside Llewyn Davis was nearly shut out of everything, managing to score just two nods for Best Cinematography (ahem..over 12 Years a Slave) and Best Sound Mixing, despite having swept the National Society of Film Critics last week.  Ditto to Saving Mr. Banks, who only managed to get noticed for Original Score, despite a strong belief that Emma Thompson Was going to be up for Best Actress.  And zero, zilch, nada for The Butler.

Not much else really, although now we can say Jackass Presents: Bad Grandpa is an Oscar nominated films, after scoring one for Best Makeup.  Clever, Jackass...clever.

Tops in Nominations were tied with 10 between Gravity, sweeping the technical side, and American Hustle, sweeping the artistic side, with nominations in all four acting categories.  This could be how Oscar night plays out, a tight race between the two films, and throw in some 12 Years a Slave as well.  Whichever film wins the DGA will certainly be a heavy favorite to win Best Picture at the Oscars.

Best Actor is another very tight race.  Both Tom Hanks and Robert Redford got bounced in favor of the new Hollywood's Leo Dicaprio and Christian Bale.  I still believe the race is between Bruce Dern for Nebraska, which scored six nominations, and Chiwetel Ejiofer for 12 Years a Slave.  The best predictor will be the SAG awards, announced this Saturday.

A complete list of all nominees is posted under the Oscars tab!  I'll hit you with the party details later.
Otherwise, just wake me up when it's March 2nd.

Last minute thoughts for Oscar Noms

Enjoy

Spreading Around the Love at the Golden Globes

Everyone’s favorite annual event dedicated to getting Hollywood stars drunk, then giving them awards they were never expecting to win, hence forcing them to improvise pathetically hilarious speeches.  It’s the Golden Globe$! 

I think the moment of the night was when Seth Myers and Julie Bowen claimed they were willing to “play ball” with the Hollywood Foreign Press Association.

Anyway, The Globes have always been known to give love to big Hollywood pictures, so despite 12 Years a Slave having more nominations than any other film, many were still expecting Gravity to take home Best Picture- Drama.  Although they were wrong about Best Picture, Gravity’s director Alfonso Cuaron took home Best Director in an attempt to spread all of the love around.  On-point was the first surprise of the night, Spike Jonze winning Best Screenplay for Her.

As for Comedy/Musical? Don’t even start with me.  Julie Deply was nominated for Before Midnight.  Yeah, that movie was so funny I cried throughout the whole thing.  Especially the end. 

On that end, it was American Hustle’s night, Jennifer Lawrence and Amy Adams both taking home prizes.  Adams winning over SAG nominees Meryl Streep and Emma Thompson, is probably a precursor to a potential Oscar nomination.  However, it will not be the same with Leonardo Dicaprio, who took home Best Actor Comedy/Musical for The Wolf of Wall Street, over Bruce Dern…(wut…)

It pays to be popular if you want to win a Golden Globe.  Likewise for an unexpected Best Actor Drama winner Matthew McCounaghey, who actually is expected to be nominated for an Oscar.  My theory is, the HFPA felt sorry for those really bankable stars that Hollywood can count on, having to sit in the most crowded award ceremony ever.  Seriously, so much speech time lost due to winners having to sneak through tables to the stage.  And with so many people, you can bet they’ll all find a number of people to hug, kiss and thank on the way up.  If you want people to watch, please manage that a little better HFPA, thanks.

Finally, the biggest surprise of the night was All is Lost winning Best Score.  The biggest whoop was Cate Blanchett winning Best Actress Drama.  Now that it’s over we can finally move on to the Oscars, whose nominations will be announced Thursday, Check out the nomination predictions on the Oscars page, and the other pages will have all the info you need to know to make your own predictions!

BAFTA and DGA nominees

The BAFTA nominations were announced yesterday, and, quite pretentiously, snuck in a last second consideration of Gravity as a British film.  I smell quite a conspiracy I’m afraid, I mean, there were SIX nominations for British film, rather than the usual five.  Seems suspicious?  A last minute push to go along side another obviously British film, Disney’s Saving Mr. Banks produced with contribution from BBC Films, filmed almost entirely on the Disney lot in Southern California.  Gravity is, I guess, at least shot in a studio in the UK, although takes place in space, save one down-to-earth scene that was shot in Arizona.  The British Academy has their heads in the clouds.  The film was written, directed and produced by the Spanish Alfonso Cuaron, and was co-produced by David Heyman (who is a brit), and starred All-Americans.  And yes it was filmed in England, mostly in the same studio that another obviously British film, Star Wars was shot.  And the year that it’s nominated just so happen to randomly have SIX nominees.. just might mean conspiracy.

Because of that “exception,” Gravity was the most nominated film at the BAFTAs, nabbing eleven.  12 Years a Slave and American Hustle were both close behind with ten each.  Philomena, a British film, suspiciously snuck into a nomination for Best Film along with Gravity, 12 Years A Slave, Captain Phillips and American Hustle.

And for those of you who love to predict the Oscars, a much more relevant story is the DGA nominations were released on Tuesday.  The five nominees for feature film direction are identical to the BAFTA’s choices.  They are:

Alfonso Cuaron for Gravity

Paul Greengrass for Captain Phillips

Steve Mcqueen for 12 Years a Slave

David O. Russell for American Hustle

Martin Socrsese for The Wolf of Wall Street

These are also close to the Golden Globe nominees, with an actual surprise-Martin Scorsese nomination.  The DGA has always been the biggest precursor to what will win the Oscar for Best Director, which directly influences the Best Picture Oscar.  I still believe Steve Mcqueen will and should win this one, will Russell and Cuaron close behind.

One thing we learned from last year. the names nominated do NOT mean they will be nominated for the Oscar.  Their films probably will score a Best Picture nomination (since the Oscars have so damn many), but last year the Oscars came up with some pretty creative stuff for Best Director, probably to make for more competition in the Best Picture category (to no avail, Argo still won).  We may still see a few different names on the Oscar shortlist for Best Director.

Updates on the Oscar page with my nomination predictions, and  some extra pages so you can take a look at the films that have been gaining attention so far this season.  Also new updates to The Movies page.

Golden Globes are THIS Sunday, January 12^th, check back then!