Best Picture
American Hustle
Captain Phillips
Dallas Buyers Club
Gravity
Her
Nebraska
Philomena
12 Years a Slave
The Wolf of Wall
Street
Will and Should Win- 12
Years a Slave
There is no evidence in Oscar history to disprove that 12 Years a Slave will not win. Although both Gravity (the Best Director favorite) and American Hustle both received the most nominations, 12 Years a Slave has the Golden Globe,
Critics Choice and Producer’s Guild, and is poised to win the BAFTAs top
prize. The only thing missing from this
résumé is a DGA win, which went to Gravity,
causing many to believe that Gravity
is the favorite. However, this is not
true. Everything that history has told
us will result in a sharing of awards, the lion’s share going to Gravity, but 12 Years taking home Best Picture á la Shakespeare in Love splitting with Saving Private Ryan. Then
there’s the guys who actually orchestrated the Shakespeare in Love Oscar run, and there film American Hustle. We cannot
denounce the film’s presence, but if we’re going by Vegas betting odds, American Hustle will win nothing, since
it is not favored in any category. Queue
the dramatics…?
One more thing to get straight, the other nominated films
are very good (especially Her),
however, they have absolutely NO chance at taking home Best Picture. 3 films with a chance is definitely a crowd,
so sorry to crush your dreams of a Philomena
Best Picture, but it just won’t happen, and it’s better that you find out this
way, rather than pull a Mitt Romney.
Best Director
12 Years a Slave - Steve McQueen
American Hustle- David O. Russell
Gravity- Alfonso Cuarón
Nebraska- Alexander Payne
The Wolf of Wall Street- Martin Scorsese
Will
and Should win- Alfonso Cuarón
I
would’ve liked to see Spike Jonze be up this year. If subtlety is really what the Academy voters
are nominating, then why David O. Russell?
Anyway, the only argument needed to put money down on this is the fact
that Cuarón won the DGA award, which has been the uber-predictor of this race
for some time. Gravity’s tie with 12 Years a
Slave at the Producers Guild just lets everyone know that they are not
going to count out Gravity from top
awards, but this is really the only award it’s favored to win. I would not take a parlay on either Gravity or 12 Years to sweep Picture/Director, but it is interesting that no
African-American or Latin American has ever won Best Director, and this year
will basically be one or the other. Vive
La Diversité!
Best Actor
12 Years a Slave- Chiwetel Ejiofer
American Hustle- Christian Bale
Dallas Buyers Club- Matthew McConaughey
Nebraska- Bruce Dern
The Wolf of Wall Street- Leonardo Dicaprio
Will Win- Matthew McConaughey
Should Win- Bruce Dern
Again, I’m going to start by expressing my befuddlement and subtle
anger that Tom Hanks wasn’t nominated, despite “I’m the Captain Phillips now!” Best Picture nod. Matthew McConaughey won the Globe and the
SAG, there’s no stopping him. Burce Dern
was hanging tough until then, and I would really like to see someone win for
not playing a real life person or drug addict (or both as in McConaughey’s
case). Dallas Buyers Club was awesome though, and McConaughey winning is a
good way to not only honor is awesome last TWO years, but show the fans that
the don’t care how many shitty movies you make, if you’re GOOD, you’re
good. Period.
And no talk of Leo winning.
A leading actor who was not nominated for the SAG has never won an
Oscar.
Best Actress
American Hustle- Amy Adams
August: Osage County- Meryl Streep
Blue Jasmine- Cate Blanchett
Gravity- Sandra Bullock
Philomena- Judi Dench
Will and Should Win-Cate Blanchett
A great group of previous winners and Amy Adams. This category is a wash, Cate Blanchett has
won every award for this film known to human kind, and even she believes she
will win. She is realistically going to
get the most votes of any nominee in any category. Don’t bet against her.
My girl from Blue is the Warmest
Color, Adele Exarchopoulos, was absolutely outstanding this year, and I’m
not saying she would have put up any kind of contention against Blanchett, but
she and the film certainly deserve some recognition, despite its NC-17 rating.
Best Supporting Actor
12 Years a Slave- Michael Fassbinder
American Hustle- Bradley Cooper
Captain Phillips- Barkhad Abdi
Dallas Buyers Club- Jared Leto
The Wolf of Wall Street- Jonah Hill
Will and Should win- Jared Leto
Yeah, don’t even think twice about this, Jared Leto’s story is awesome
and he has a ton of fans. He was also
brilliant in Dallas Buyers Club, a
role that is poised to win an Oscar.
None of the other guys can compete.
Best Supporting Actress
12 Years a Slave- Lupita Nyong'o
American Hustle- Jennifer Lawrence
August: Osage County- Julia Roberts
Blue Jasmine- Sally Hawkins
Nebraska- June Squibb
Will win- Jennifer Lawrence
Should win- Lupita Nyong’o
This is the only real race. It’s
almost a coin flip between Nyong’o and Jennifer Lawrence, but Lawrence just won
last year, and was miscast in American Hustle
in my opinion. Nyong’o had a powerful
performance, and being previously unknown, is a raw standout, compared to
Lawrence, who was the top grossing film star of 2013. Really tough to call, but American Hustle has to be the favorite in some category right? Don't really agree, but with the BAFTA win, it's clear J Law has the base to take this one away from a SAG winner.
Best Original Screenplay
American Hustle- David O. Russell and Eric Singer
Blue Jasmine- Woody Allen
Dallas Buyers Club- Craig Borten and Melisa Wallack
Her-
Spike Jonze
Nebraska- Bob Nelson
Will and Should win- Her
If you thought the last category was close, this is even closer. It’s a total toss between Her and American Hustle. Her has won more script awards, but Hustle has yet to relly be favored in
anything. With Weinstein backing, we
could easily see a turn of tables here.
I doubt there will be a third contender that would benefit from a split,
but if there was it would be Woody Allen, who has won this category three
times.
Best Adapted Screenplay
12 Years a Slave- John Ridley
Before Midnight- Julie Deply, Ethan Hawke and Richard Linklater
Captain Phillips- Billy Ray
Philomena- Steve Coogan and Jeff Pope
The Wolf of Wall Street- Terence Winter
Will and Should win- 12 Years a
Slave
This is another walkover. The
only reason 12 Years doesn’t have a
Writers Guild Award credit is because it was deemed ineligible, allowing Captain Phillips to take it. Don’t be fooled, because that means nothing
(see: last year- Quentin Tarantino).
Best Animated Feature
The Croods
Despicable Me 2
Ernest & Celestine
Frozen
The Wind Rises
Will Win- Frozen
Should Win-The Wind Rises
I haven’t really seen any of these, but
they’re already making Frozen into a Broadway musical. Everybody loves Frozen, even little
kids. In theory, The Wind Rises,
should have a shot, being Miyazaki’s last film ever and having a release two
weeks before the awards, but a lot of critics have expressed that it’s only for true fans of
Miyazaki, and he’s already lost this category once. Of course the film is still brilliant.
Best Foreign Language Film
The Broken Circle Breakdown (Belgium)
The Great Beauty (Italy(
The Hunt (Denmark)
The Missing Picture (Cambodia)
Omar (Palestine)
Will Win- The Great Beauty
Should Win- The Hunt
Foreign Film always brings a surprise.
The Great Beauty was nominated
for the Golden Palm, is still in LA theaters and has won the Golden Globe. But I can never call any Foreign Film a sure
thing. The Hunt has achieved regular acclaim and was up for the Golden
Palm in 2012. If you want a huge
underdog pick, go with Cambodia’s first ever nominee with The Missing Picture, which is poised for release two weeks after
the awards. Sometimes, this category will award a film that has a release immediately after the awards to promote it, and they have taken awards awat from completely brilliant films like The Hunt and The Great Beauty. The odds on it are currently
50-1, and I LIKE THOSE ODDS!
Best Documentary Feature
The Act of Killing
Cutie and the Boxer
Dirty Wars
The Square
Twenty Feet From Stardom
Will and Should win- The Act of Killing
This is another tough one. The Square just took home the DGA, and
honestly, it’s that good that it could be a favorite, but The Act of Killing
has received consistent praise, along with a number of top ten lists, including
the Sight and Sound Best Film of 2013.
I would also not count out 20 Feet From Stardom,
a definite force being the highest grossing documentary of the bunch by a clear
mile. Definitely something a lot of
documentary filmmakers would love to say.
Best Original Score
The Book Thief- John Williams
Gravity- Steven Price
Her-
William Butler and Owen Pallett
Philomena- Alexandre Desplat
Saving Mr. Banks- Thomas Newman
Will
Win- Gravity
Should
Win- Her
This
will either be Gravity or Her, unless we see voters take a turn
back to big orchestral pieces. Gravity makes the most sense since the
score went extremely well with the impact of the scene, without being too “Pacific Rim” Her is a close second, and Saving
Mr. Banks has an outside chance since it was shut out of everything else.
Best Original Song
"Happy"
from Despicable Me 2- Pharrell Williams (Music and Lyrics)
"Let
it Go" from Frozen- Kristen Anderson Lopez and Robert Lopez
(Music and Lyrics)
"The
Moon Song" from Her- Karen O (Music), Karen O and Spike Jonze
(Lyrics)
"Ordinaty
Love" from Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom- Paul Hewson, Dave Evans,
Adam Clayton and Larry Mullen (Music), Paul Hewson (Lyrics)
Will
Win- “Let it Go”
Should
Win-“Alone yet not Alone”. ONLY KIDDING
Yeah,
I know “Ordinary Love” won the Golden Globe, but Mandela didn’t have a sing-a-long.
Best Cinematography
The Grandmaster- Philippe Le Sourd
Gravity- Emmanuel Lubezki
Inside Llewyn Davis- Bruno Delbonnel
Nebraska- Phendon Papamichael
Prisoners- Roger A. Deakins
Will
and Should Win- Gravity
Easy
one, Lubezki has been up five previous times and not won once. This is a sure thing.
Best Costume Design
12 Years a Slave- Patricia Norris
American Hustle- Michael Wilkinson
The Grandmaster- William Chang Suk Ping
The Great Gatsby- Catherine Martin
The Invisible Woman- Michael O'Connor
Will
Win- The Great Gatsby
Should
Win- The Grandmaster
This
could be the one American Hustle sneaks
away with, but my money is on Gatsby. The
Grandmaster had excellent costumes, but unlikely that it was seen by
everyone. I doubt 12 Years a Slave has a shot, but it’s the definite third wheel in
the race, thus completing a five win night.
Best FIlm Editing
12 Years a Slave- Joe Walker
American Hustle- Jay Cassidy, Crispin Struthers, Alan Baumgarten
Captain Phillips- Christopher Rouse
Dallas Buyers Club- John Mac McMurphy and Martin Pensa
Gravity- Alfonso Cuaron and Mark Sanger
Will
Win- Gravity
Should
Win- 12 Years a Slave
Ahhh,
the Gravity technical award sweep
continues. Really surprised if Captain Phillips or 12 Years take this.
Best Makeup/Hairstyling
Dallas Buyers Club- Adruitha Lee and Robin Mathews
Jackass Presents: Bad Grandpa- Stephen Prouty
The Lone Ranger- Joel Harlow and Gloria Pasqua-Casny
Will
and Should Win- Dallas Buyers Club
If
the makeup people have a sense of humor, Bad
Grandpa would win. Have you met a
makeup person with a sense of humor?
Well, maybe, but those people probably loved Dallas Buyers Club.
Best Production Design
12 Years a Slave- Adam Stockhausen (Production Design) Alice Baker (Set Decoration)
American Hustle- Judy Becker (Production Design), Heather Loeffler (Set Decoration)
Gravity- Andy Nicholson (Production Design) Rose Goodwin and Joanne Woodward
(Set Decoration)
The Great Gatsby- Catherine Martin (Production Design), Beverly Dunn (Set Decoration)
Her-
K.K. Barrett (Production Design) Gene Serdena (Set Decoration)
Will
Win- The Great Gatsby
Should
Win- Her
This
one is totally up for grabs by anyone of these films. The cool thing about this category is, there
is so much politics that Gatsby’s
beautiful and elaborate production design, may take home the top prize. The Art Director’s Guild Awards doesn’t help
much with this, giving prizes to Gatsby,
Gravity and Her. You should probably
choose your winner from those three.
Best Sound Mixing
Captain Phillips- Chris Burdon, Mark Taylor, Mike Prestwood Smith and Chris Munro
Gravity- Skip Lievsay, Niv Adiri, Christopher Benstead and Chris Munro
The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug- Christopher Boyes, Michael Hedges, Michael
Semanick and Tony Johnson
Inside Llewyn Davis- Skip Lievsay, Greg Orloff and Peter F. Kurland
Lone Survivior- Andy Koyama, Beau Borders and David Brownlow
Will
and Should Win-Gravity
I’m
still going with Gravity for all the
tech stuff.
Best
Sound Editing
All is Lost- Steve Boeddeker and Richard Hymns
Captain Phillips- Oliver Tarney
Gravity- Glenn Freemantle
The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug- Brent Burge
Lone Survivor- Wylie Stateman
Will
and Should win- Gravity
Well,
Gravity was the best movie out of all
of them, right?
Best Visual Effects
Gravity- Tim Webber, Chris Lawrence, Dave Shirk and Neil Corbould
The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug- Joe Letteri, Eric Saindon, David Clayton
and Eric Reynolds
Iron Man 3- Christopher Townsend, Guy Williams, Erik Nash and Dan Sudick
The Lone Ranger- Tim Alexander, Gary Brozenich, Edson Williams and John Frazier
Star Trek Into Darkness- Roger Guyett, Patrick Tubach, Ben Grossman and Burt
Dalton
Will
and Should win- Gravity
Gravity can be shut out of every
other category but will never lose this one.
If my predictions are right, this should complete a set of six awards
for the film.
Thanks for reading!
This will also be in a tab when I post next, until then, happy viewing.
