Predictions for Major Awards

Our Final post pre Oscar is upon us. I've included potential surprises in each of the categories where applicable.

Best Picture

Will Win: Birdman

Should Win: Boyhood

How could Hollywood ever resist an attempt to award a film about entertainment?  Why would any of us ever think that a film about regular people would ever win?  The last film that was close to about a normal person was The Hurt Locker, as each of the last five years the Academy has honored only historical biopics and movies about the movies.  This trend fixes to continue, and the question may is for how long.  This seems to be a frustrating year for the Academy, as everyone is talking phooey amount them almost nonstop this award season, so if they choose a less controversial film, look for Boyhood or ever The Grand Budapest Hotel to take the cake.  But with Birdman’s win at the PGA and DGA, it seems completely obvious that that will be the winner, because those guilds are mostly the same people that will be voting at the Oscars, and not those who choose the Globes and BAFTAs, which Birdman lost.

Best Actor

Will Win: Eddie Redmayne for The Theory of Everything

Should Win: Michael Keaton for Birdman

This is actually a much closer race than many are predicting.  Redmayne seemed to have the race wrapped up shortly after the SAGs, however, with Birdman’s resurgence in the race, it seems weird that voters who have already gone out of their way to be different from the critics and pick Birdman as Best Picture, would not stay with Michael Keaton as Best Actor.  Here’s a little breakdown of the race:

The key is that Hollywood is not doing well financially, and as you may know everything done in America is done because of money.  The academy will most likely use their power to crown Redmayne the new young star of Hollywood, in hopes he can sell tickets in the future, where as Keaton is not expected to be a leading actor in major films.  You still can't count out Keaton because of Birdman's excellent campaign and new-found surge of attention, but if money is on the line, go where the money is.  Always.

Best Actress

Will and Should Win: Julianne Moore for Still Alice

There is going to be a lot of absolute sure-thing winners in this section, and this is one of them.  Julianne Moore has been up now five times and never won.  In fact, she is one of the few actresses to lose twice in the same year for acting.  She was utterly remarkable and it would be a complete sock if she did not win, especially since Witherspoon and Cotillard have already won, and the other two girls are just up for their first time now.  The real bet is if Moore will cry in her acceptance speech or if she will say she feels “honored” to be with the rest of the nominees

Best Supporting Actor

Will and Should Win: J.K. Simmons for Whiplash

Whiplash is an underdog contender in a couple races, but this one is a sure bet.  Simmons has won everything there is to win for a supporting actor up to this point, although he is sort of a lead in the film.  A great role of an antagonist that really delves deep into a relationship unlike one we have seen before in film.  If Simmons, a beloved veteran actor of film, TV and Farmer’s insurance commercials, loses…just, no, he is not going to lose.  Bet the house.

Best Supporting Actress

Will and Should Win: Patricia Arquette for Boyhood

Sadly, this could be the only award Boyhood takes home, but if the film wins nothing else, Arquette will win, as she has won virtually every award possible up till now.  Therefore, if she loses, who wins?  Emma Stone, I guess, but Boyhood has had a late campaign that favors Arquette, so this is a pretty easy one.

Best Director

Will Win: Alejandro G. Inarritu for Birdman

Should Win: Richard Linklater for Boyhood

You can usually predict this one by just looking at who wins the DGA.  Inarritu is pretty much a lock, even though Linklater has won more awards overall.  The other directors have no chance, it’s between these two and I would still be surprised (pleasantly of course) if Linklater won.  The only reason being is that he is more established and has never won, or even been nominated for Best Director before.  Inarritu has, in his slightly shorter career, also identified himself as an auteur, and the Oscars will be ready to crown him Hollywood royalty.

Best Original Screenplay

Will Win: Wes Anderson for The Grand Budapest Hotel

Should Win: Richard Linklater for Boyhood

This race seems close, but in all honesty, I think Grand Budapest is a clear favorite.  It’s fresh off a win at the WGA and is poised to win several Oscars, but Birdman could still sneak after its late surge.  I just think that the writers have already made up their minds between the two, and they just like Wes Anderson as well, who has actually never won in this category, so I would not be surprised if they gave Birdman director and Anderson Best script.

Best Adapted Screenplay

Will Win:  for The Imitation Game

Should Win: Damien Chazelle for Whiplash

Not a great selection for a year with some great adaptations.  The Imitation Game has got to win something, right?  It’s very possible that the Academy has such a desire to spread the love to EVERY movie, and this for be Imitation Game’s chance at an Oscar, but something like The Theory of Everything may take it away.  I doubt it though.  If Gone Girl was up, then there would be a much better race, but understanding that film would involve people thinking about something, so might as well just go with whatever Harvey says.

Best Animated Feature

Will Win: How to Train Your Dragon 2

Should Win: Big Hero 6

Wow, never would’ve imagined this category without The LEGO Movie, but I guess a movie that comes out in February just cannot get nominated anymore.  HTTYD2 is kind of a lock, with Big Hero 6 being a huge underdog contender, whose only chance at winning is appealing to those who don’t want something obvious.  Being that Big Hero 6 is the only other film most voters are likely to have even watched, it has a small chance.

Best Foreign-Language Film

Will Win: Wild Tales (Argentina)

Should Win: Ida (Poland)

This is a tough one.  I just have a hard time believing this race is between two movies with strong religious themes, Ida and Leviathan.  The latter won the Golden Globe and is the handicapper’s odds-on-favorite, but this is my only real surprise pick, Wild Tales, which didn’t have a wide release, is a less challenging film that the other two.  Also, the film was just released again in some markets, and I’ve noticed historically, Foreign Film has been used as sort of a marketing tool for films with upcoming releases, that’s another reason why I’m picking it.

Best Documentary Feature

Will and Should Win: Citizenfour

I’ve heard rumors that Virunga is the underdog big of the bunch.  If that is the case then I guess your Documentary has to be on Netflix to win this category, which is kind of weird.  I think enough people voting have seen and understand that Citizenfour is one of the boldest documentaries ever made, and giving it to anything else would be pretty crazy.