The Movies

American Sniper
Nominations- Best Picture, Best Actor (Bradley Cooper), Best Adapted Screenplay, Best Editing, Best Sound Mixing, Best Sound Editing
Chances- American Sniper was a big surprise to many.  Bradley Cooper's superstar stud status has put everybody in awe of him.  Everywhere he goes, he is gold.  Because of this, if he's in a movie every year, the blind followers known as Hollywood types will swoon in a state of hypnosis and awe as they punch his name on the ballot.  He won't win, though, the movie's nominations are it's win, unless it takes home either of the Sound awards (or both).
Opinion- Very well pieced together film, but ultimately unfocused, unless it was supposed to be a study of the psyche of soldiers need to keep going to war.  In which case, I liked it better the first time I saw the movie, when it was called The Hurt Locker.  It was entertaining, interesting, but ultimately not as good as the one that came before it.  Although Eastwood (at 84!) and his crew paid careful attention to sight and sound, so expect it to win sound at least!

Boyhood

Nominations- Best Picture, Best Director, Best Original Screenplay, Best Supporting Actor (Ethan Hawke), Best Supporting Actress (Patricia Arquette), Best Editing

Chances- Boyhood is a big favorite for Picture, Director and Supporting Actress.  For each of the last six years, we have seen the Academy honor as many films as possible, not giving more than four awards to a Best Picture winner (Gravity won seven but lost out on Best Picture).  This year is making out to look again like we'll be spreading the love around asa much as possible.

Opinion- This is a film unlike anything ever seen before.  A moving look at the generation I grew up in, using an unprecedented cinematic technique of filming over such a long period of time.  The time, work and effort put into this social observation film more than deserves to be recognized.  To me, Boyhood is one of the best films released in 2014.

Birdman

Nominations- Best Picture, Best Director, Best Original Screenplay, Best Actor (Michael Keaton), Best Supporting Actor (Edward Norton), Best Supporting Actress (Emma Stone), Best Cinematography, Best Sound Editing, Best Sound Mixing.

Chances- This movie seemed to have a lot more steam before Boyhood started winning every Best Picture award, all the way until it lost Best Picture Comedy/Muscial at the Golden Globes to The Grand Budapest Hotel.  Michael Keaton seems to be a big favorite for best actor, however, Birdman will have a hard time pulling off other awards without the ability to stay fresh in the minds of viewers.  As of now it is the favorite to also win Original Screenplay and Cinematography, but if the press from the film continues to fall, voters might opt for something more impacting.

Opinion- This film will always be remembered as the contemporary pinnacle of satire, of Hollywood and Broadway, and the unbound meshing of the two.  The film’s photography is beyond remarkable, but it truly strikes a cord with those who understand the experience of the actor, the aging actor or the actor that is more concerned with themselves than the show.  Combine that with a striking commentary about the state of entertainment in New York society, from multiple points of view, you have a film that certainly warrants more than one viewing.

Foxcatcher

Nominations- Best Director, Best Original Screenplay, Best Actor (Steve Carell), Best Supporting Actor (Mark Ruffalo), Best Makeup

Chances- This movie, despite losing enough gas to not nail the wider field of Best Picture, still snuck into a lot of big races, but sadly, will win none of them baring a miracle.  Voters will consider the amount of love it got with the nominations is enough.

Opinion- Personally, I had no reason to like this movie.  I was not very impressed by Bennett Miller’s previous attempts, and the film starred, to my eye, subpar actors, in a biopic with little exposition, about a sport (wrestling) that is not interesting to me.  However, I was impressed despite all of that, and the main reason was Miller’s confidence to pace the film a little slow and focus on the intricacies of the relationship between the poor and rich, and less on the shock of the actual historical events.

The Grand Budapest Hotel

Nominations- Best Picture, Best Director, Best Original Screenplay, Best Cinematography, Best Production Design, Best Editing, Best Original Score, Best Hair/Makeup

Chances- This is the only movie that can surprise all of us.  After an early release, the movie's steam has stayed strong and being critically reviewed as one of the best movies of the year (it still has nothing on Boyhood in that regard).  I doubt we're in for a huge surprise in Best Picture, but this movie is certainly the favorite to walk away with the most Oscars of the night, namely original script, production design, makeup and costumes.

Opinion- Another engrossing film, with an excellent character and performance by Ralph Fiennes.  Very entertaining, however, there is nothing new and moving about this film, unless it’s really stacked up against Anderson’s other films.  If you are of the opinion that this is the best film of the year, you are probably a huge Wes fan.  Other than that, the film is very entertaining, but doesn’t set out to challenge, wow or present to the viewer something completely different.

Gone Girl

Nominations- Best Actress (Rosamund Pike)

Chances- This film was just too creepy to be up for Best Picture et al.  I don't think it has much to do with sexism, mostly with white men can't really get this movie, an males make up over 90% of  voting executives.

Opinion- A mind bender done by the master of discomfort, David Fincher.  The story seems a little odd as a film, with all the exposition, however, it is an unprecedented look at gender and the real horrors that could plague what seems like normal marriages.

The Imitation Game

Nominations- Best Picture, Best Director, Best Adapted Screenplay, Best Actor (Benedict Cumberbatch), Best Supporting Actress (Kiera Knightly), Best Production Design, Best Original Score, Best Editing

Chances- Despite not being as critically well received as it’s above competitors, The Imitation Game has had a strong showing at major stops on the circuit so far.  Two words: Weinstein Company.  Unfortunately, the Weinsteins have not had a film win Best Picture and NOT win a Golden Globe for Best Picture, so I have a hard time believing this movie is going to be a big surprise.  It is the favorite to win Adapted Screenplay from a pretty shallow group, but if it can't pull that off, it may walk away empty handed.

Opinion- An extremely engrossing true story that just doesn’t have a lot of memorable substance.  Too conventional as a biopic with not enough focus to really come away with anything really.

Interstellar
Nominations- Best Sound Mixing, Best Sound Editing, Best Visual Effects, Best Production Design, Best Original Score
Chances- Interstellar was once thought to be a potential Best Picture nominee.  Then everyone realized it was Christopher Nolan who directed, and immediately religated it to technical awards and music (obviously the Academy doesn't like him very much).  It does stand a chance to at least take home Visual Effects, but that may be all.
Opinion- At the base of this film, a two and a half hour epic space FX blast of a movie, is an attempt to flesh out the bleak outlook of life on earth that many more are holding everyday.  Of course, this film would've never been made had it not taken concluded with a thoughtful, academic sense of hope for the human race.  That is much needed in a world that most of us view as hopeless on a daily basis.  I thoroughly enjoyed this movie.

Into the Woods

Nominations- Best Supporting Actress (Meryl Streep), Best Production Design, Best Costume Design

Chances- Into the Woods is actually the favorite to win Costume Design. The real bet is to see whether or not Meryl Streep even bothers to show up.  Being there EVERY year just seems to me like too much of a good thing.

Opinion- Sondheim fans will most likely come together in support of this film, as it is a very good adaptation of a very good show.  My only quarrel was it did not have to overwhelming cinematic qualities that Chicago (also directed by Rob Marshall) had, but there are times it uses its cinematic license to tell the story even better.

Mr. Turner
Nominations- Best Cinematography, Best Production Design, Best Costume Design, Best Original Score
Chances- If not for The Grand Budapest Hotel, this movie may have a shot at winning Produciton Design or Costume Design.  The amount of effort put into making the film as authentic as possible definitely deserves recognition.  Alas, being nominated will be it's only recognition.
Opinion- Another biopic this year, this time by the great Mike Leigh.  However, I was confused when I was searching for what to take away from this film, although it was authentic and visually stunning.  I guess my mind is not ready for movies without plots yet. 

NIghtcrawler
Nominations- Best Original Screenplay
Chances- None
Opinion- A very captivating look at how media (especially Los Angeles media) has been completely corrupted by money.  The scope of the film is a bit off-putting, Gyllenhaal's character seems too mysterious to really want to follow, but if you can manage as I did, then it's really a testament to his performance.  This movie is definitely worth the investment.

Selma

Nominations- Best Picture, Best Original Song (“Glory”)

Chances- It will win Best Original Song.

Opinion- I am more than wiling to discuss how Selma being nominated has nothing to do with white guilt, but to some of the high brows in the Academy, that may be exactly what it means.  To me, it was a study of a crucial point in American progress, and, being the most uplifting film of the year, it is worth a watch.  It is sort of counter-productive that the largest parts are all played by Brits, but I guess it sort of mirrors the American Revolution in that way, which many more people would relate to.  Despite that, Oyelowo will go from TV journeyman to Hollywood star with this role.

The Theory of Everything

Nominations- Best Picture, Best Adapted Screenplay, Best Actor (Eddie Redmayne), Best Actress (Felicity Jones), Best Original Score

Chances- In the ever transparent attempt to try and give awards to EVERY movie, no matter how much alike they are to other films of both years past and this year, The Theory of Everything will most likely, and deservedly win Best Original Score.  It has a small chance at nabbing Screenplay over it's counterpart, The Imitation Game, depending on how badly supporters want to campaign against the Weinstein's in that race.

Opinion- Well-made, but ultimately nothing special at all.  The idea that you would take an amazing story of perseverance and poison it by taking an empathic view of the wife means that this movie left me with very little.  The music was good though.

Unbroken

Nominations- Best Cinematography, Best Sound Editing, Best Sound Mixing

Chances- Unbroken failed to impress, despite being a total Oscar type movie.  it's possible that the movie will surprise viewers by nabbing a Sound award.

Opinion- In an era where Hollywood studios still can't seem to trust female directors, it's actually great progress to see this film do so well at the box office.  It's gritty, and there are some cool spots, but overall, the story is better than the film made about it.  The film does most of what it sets out to do, but that still doesn't make it spectacular, even though the true story is amazing.

Wild
Nominations- Best Actress (Reese Witherspoon), Best Supporting Actress (Laura Dern)
Chances- In a more gender diverse world, this movie would have been made years ago.  Reese Witherspoon has already won Best Actress, but if she hadn't already, I would say that her contributions to this category and the integrity of American film would give her a chance.  However, Julianne Moore has never won.
Opinion- A difficult story to really do right, Jean-Marc Vallee and Nick Hornby correctly focus on the personal and intimate aspects of the movie.  this movie is not really conventional Hollywood, there are no real scenes pandering to the Reese Witherspoon fans, it's about the finishing the journey, and then realizing it was never about finishing the journey, but finally realizing what a person is capable of.  Personal for me as I am constantly on a journey to get to the theaters to watch the next great movie.

Whiplash

Nominations- Best Picture, Best Adapted Screenplay, Best Supporting Actor (J.K. Simmons), Best Editing, Best Sound Mixing

Chances- The little movie that could will definitely not win Best Picture.  Had it been up for Best Director, I would say it actually has a shot.  Still great that such a small (and awesome!) movie gets all this recognition.  In fact, if J.K. Simmons does not win, you may see a lot of people throwing themselves off buildings having bet the house on him.  He's a lock.

Opinion- If you like Jazz music, then you may like this extremely uncomfortable drama that deals with an uncanny teacher-pupil relationship.  The grit the film has is strangely combined such a laid back and chill musical genre, and you can imagine that there is very little comic relief, and what comedy there is, is hysterical.  I can imagine people being turned off by this movie, but to me, it was impacting.