Oscar, 85, gets old

As the sun sets on a surprisingly windy February evening, the epic, seemingly endless night in which all the film lovers watch with loving, sparkly eyes, one rich Hollywood person awards another rich Hollywood person.

And we love it.

This year, we were treated with an exceptionally funny opening act, in which Seth MacFarlane does what he has absolutely has perfected in his over-decade long career, make himself look like a complete idiot.  We laugh time and time again, but the true irony is his commentary, even an extremely successful comedian like Seth has to put on the Ritz for the most looked upon award ceremony in the world.  Along with his off-color jokes, he invited some celebrities to sing and dance with him to pop standards in his show-opening, highlighting the theme of the evening, music in film.

In the midst of the giggle-filled night, we actually had some true surprises in some of the most important categories.  The first of which was in the Best Supporting Actor category.  Whilst many were expecting SAG winner Tommy Lee Jones to take home his second Oscar award, the night began with a wide-eyed WAOWW when Christoph Waltz went to pick up his second award.  The center of Mr. Waltz speech was the most deserved Quentin Tarantino, who had directed him to both of his Oscar wins.

But the surprises didn’t wait long to keep coming.  Animated Feature, went to Brave, as many were expecting Wreck-It Ralph or Frankenweenie.  Similarly, Ang Lee collected his second award for Best Director for Life of Pi, over slight favorite Steven Spielberg (Lincoln), and Hollywood veteran David O. Russell (Silver Linings Playbook).

However, the true surprise came in the multitude of technical awards, where, in fact, we had a TIE!!!  In Best Sound Editing, the winners were Zero Dark Thirty and Skyfall.  The was, in fact the first tie since Barabra Streisand and Katherine Hepburn tied for Best Actress in 1969.

Now, I’m sure when the writers were drawing this up, they expected the pacing of this show to be much more timed for the hustle and bustle environment of primetime television.  Then the ideas started to come and wouldn’t stop.  So we viewers ended up with a tiring series of music in the movies tributes, including a stunning performance by Shirley Bassey in an impressive James Bond tribute, a baffling extended-extended play of previous Oscar-winning musicals, and the most random moment in Oscar history, when Seth MacFarlane reenacted twenty seconds from The Sound of Music.  Ok, maybe the streaker was the most random moment.  But, certainly, the theme of music in movies didn’t really draw in a new crowd of viewers to the awards.  In the end, the show still ran a whopping three and a half hours!

After the expected wins of Anne Hathaway for Best Supporting Actress, Jennifer Lawrence for Best Actress and Daniel Day Lewis for Best Actor, we had a final shock while speculating and betting on who was the presenter of the top award.  Now it’s time to collect your payout, those of you who punched in first lady Michelle Obama, who had the ballot flown in so she could read it live from the White House.  Certainly an epic win for Argo!

And with that, the 85^th Academy Awards danced into the books with a silly song from MacFarlane and Kristen Chenoweth, celebrating all the losers.  It reality, there were few losers, all of the Best Picture nominees (save Beasts of the Southern Wild) won at least one award, continuing the trend of the Academy spreading the love around to several films, rather than having a single film sweep.  Life of Pi walked away with the most wins (4), but missed out on the top prize.  Lincoln received the most nominations, but managed to win only two, and Argo and Les Miserables nabbed three.

I’ve heard Ang Lee is already the front runner for next year’s Best Director with an upcoming adaptation of Fifty Shades of Gray (only joking).  Whatever happens, the race for Oscars 86 begins NOW!

Finally Best Picture!!

      I know you may be thinking, how can a film that has won Best Picture for the Golden Globe for Drama, the Producer's Guild Award, the BAFTAs, the SAG award's top honor, the DGA top honor, and the Critic's Choice Award can possibly LOSE at the Oscars?  Well, the answer is, it can't.  There has been a lot of speculation over the last few days to whether or not Argo will take the top prize tomorrow or not, as the lack of Best director nomination may actually hurt it's chances.  It is baffling, the Oscars have awarded several Actors turned Directors (Robert Redford, Warren Beatty, Kevin Costner and Mel Gibson have all won Best Director).  On top of that, there has been much speculation about how authentic the film really is.  Just yesterday the the real-life Canadian Ambassador (portrayed in the film by Victor Garber) had complained that the film downplayed Canada's role in the actual events.  

       So this is just a few things that are floating around, giving people reason to believe that Argo may NOT win Best Picture.  A film hasn't won Oscar's top award without having been nominated for Best Director since Driving Miss Daisy in 1989, and before then was Grand Hotel in 1931.  It really DOESN'T happen.  Well, rarely.  But the truth is, modern Oscar voters love the little guy.  They won't want to give it to a film like Lincoln, no that's too obvious.  When the nominations expanded to ten, then ten max, rather than making room for big budget blockbusters like viewers had thought, the extra slots were filled in with smaller films.  This year, rather than Skyfall and The Dark Knight Rises, we have Beasts of the Southern Wild and Amour.  

        Not to say Argo is a small picture, but in regards to the award season, it's very neutral.  It's tomato meter is near perfect, yet it's not on EVERY critics top ten lists.  Most viewers feel the same, the film is good, but not necessarily the greatest.  But would anyone complain if it wins Best Picture?  I mean I wouldn't, I punched Amour in the ballot and that has no chance of winning.  Amour is too small of a film to actually win.  Argo is a film that people know, they see, they like.  That is an extreme generalization of todays movie going audiences, but Argo is the safest pick, not being too obvious, while still being seen, for the Oscar to gain more viewers.  Safe is always the way everyone wants to go today, every investor in today's economy, as well as EVERY studio and distribution company.  While people dream of having a time like 20th-Century Fox did with Life of Pi (which also doesn't discredit it's decent chances of a surprising Best Picture win), studios will still shell out an endless array of comic book-based films, films based off of 1990s TV shows, or other epic blockbusters, to avoid taking an epic economic hit. 

        Argo is not just what people think of as the best film of the year, but rather it defines the modern Oscars.  Something good, not fantastic, but something that everyone will like (unlike Zero Dark Thirty).  It's not too small (like Beasts  and Amour) and it's not too obvious (Lincoln). The only other film that really fits this is Life of Pi, which hasn't won every other major award so far.  When filling in your predictions ballot, go with the facts, and hopefully you'll end up with more than a DVD of That's My Boy.

Winner: Argo

My Pick: Amour

The Races Continue (Pawty Numero Quatro)

We almost through the whole Oscar predictions!  We're finishing it off with some tight races, with several potential winners, causing a stir amongst the print and online oddsmakers.  Let's start with the most exciting and unpredictable award in years.  Just to clarify (SMH), "My Pick" is my favorite, not what I would predict.

Best Director:

Two-time winner Steven Spielberg seemed poised to be just the fourth director to win a third Oscar for the category, but not so fast.  Ben Affleck took the DGA top honor, which means that for only the seventh time in history, the DGA and Oscar winner will not be the same.  At the time of the announcing of the nominations, Lincoln received the most, and was expected to sweep.  Now, it seems that voters are gravitating toward other films, especially when Lincoln is already a favorite in other major awards.  What we know is this, Michael Hanake will probably win for Foreign Film, and perhaps also screenplay.  Ben Zietlin has never even made another feature, and has a long career to win an Oscar.  So that leaves Ang Lee, who directed the film that I believe will win the most awards due to the amount of love the film has gotten.  David O. Russell is backed by Dr. Harvey Weinstein, and can easily surprise everyone in the room on Oscar night.  With the press he's gotten in Hollywood, many voters are gravitating toward Russell, but I'm actually going to go with my original theme (read my previous articles to know this is not just a fave-pick), in that Life of Pi is going to come out with a surprising amount of awards.  This would certainly be a surprise.

Winner: Life of Pi

My Pick: Life of PI

Best Original Screenplay:

This category is not really all that complicated.  The Vegas guys got it right, predicting a walkover for Tarantino, despite Mark Boal winning his second WGA award for original screenplay.  Again, if a film gets amazing press like Django, it's likely to win the Oscar.  Zero Dark Thirty has some good press, some bad, Django just had some hate from Spike Lee.  Oh, and it won the Globe, which doesn't split the award into adapted and original.  If it was me filling out your book sheet, I wouldn't over think this one.

Winner: Django Unchained

My Pick: Amour

Best Adapted Screenplay:

The other tightest race ever.  Argo is the favorite to win Best Picture, and had also won the WGA award, but can it take this one down as well?  If Spielberg doesn't win Best Director, you may expect to see his film Lincoln take down this category as well.  I know Argo is the favorite, but it's much more likely that Silver Linings Playbook, again back by Weinstein (so it's not about if it will win awards but how many), or Lincoln, which has been praised all year for it's subtle script.

Winner: Lincoln

My Pick: Life of Pi

Best Animated Feature:

This is a toss-up between Wreck-It Ralph and Frankenweenie.  I honestly have no idea how this one will go, but the Producer's Guild gave their animated award to Wreck-It Ralph, and that happens to be the only one I've seen.  If you want to pick another one, then go with Frankenweenie.

Winner: Wreck-It Ralph

My Pick: Wreck-It Ralph

Best Documentary Feature:

This one is actually tougher than it looks.  Searching for Sugar Man was the most popular, and the most viewed.  But voters in this category will reach to see all of the nominated awards, the rest of which are available on DVD already.  Look for a potential upset from the stunning The Invisible War, but that's just a fave-pick, maybe.

Winner: Searching for Sugar Man

My Pick: The Invisible War

Best Foreign Language Film:

Normally the most impossible category to predict, even when a film seems like a lock.  This award, throughout the years, has gone to films on the verge of release at the time of the awards, in order to generate press for the film.  The most recent release is Canada's War Witch, which could be a surprise to, what seems like a lock in Best Picture nominee Amour.  But rarely if a foreign film is nominated for Best Picture and Best Foreign Language Film does it lose the latter.

Winner: Amour

My PicK: Amour

And we've almost come to a complete end, I'll discuss Best Picture in the last post!

The Acting Awardz

Oh wow, the epic journey continues!  Let's go to the acting awards, that's what y'all been waiting for, right?  I'll use some colorful photos, just so everyone doesn't get bored.

Best Actor:

No one in the history of the Academy Awards has won the Best Actor award three times.  Daniel Day-Lewis has already won for My Left Foot and There Will Be Blood.  He is also a huge favorite, near even money to win this year for a most impressive performance.  Get ready for history.

Winner: Lincoln- Daniel Day-Lewis

My Pick- Lincoln- Daniel Day-Lewis

Best Actress:

If you are reading every other Oscar odds/predictions, you may be mislead that this is an actual race.  It's an interesting rumor, but unfortunately like all rumors, it's not true.  Jennifer Lawrence has won the SAG award, the Golden Globe, and has Harvey Weinstein backing her.  There has been lots of speculation regarding an upset from Emannuelle Riva, and the other Globe winner, my girl Jessica Chastain, but it just won't happen.  There are plenty opportunities for a surprise on Oscar night, this is not going to be one of them.

Winner: Silver Linings Playbook- Jennifer Lawrence

My Pick: Zero Dark Thirty- Jessica Chastain

Best Supporting Actor:

This is the closest race yet.  Tommy Lee Jones is a slight favorite after having won the SAG award.  Christoph Waltz seems to be an audience favorite, especially after just having hosted SNL, but won just a couple years ago.  Some are actually picking a complete upset in Robert De Niro, who hasn't been nominated in over twenty years.  Silver Linings will most likely have an upset, but it's much more likely that the SAG winner will take the cake.  It's not like we've had phenomenal performances in this category, but each compliments their film nicely (except for Phillip Seymour Hoffman, sorry), but I certainly won't be confident in the pick until the ballot is opened and the winner is announced.  Besides, three time winners used to be rare, we will have one this year already (Daniel Day-Lewis), and one last year (Meryl Streep), so De Niro may be out of luck.

Winner: Lincoln- Tommy Lee Jones

My Pick: Lincoln- Tommy Lee Jones

Best Supporting Actress:

This is a weak category.  Weak because it didn't have any real standout performances (except for Helen Hunt), and weak because there is no competition whatsoever.  Anne Hathaway won the Golden Globe and the SAG.  And she was cat woman.  Case and point.

Winner: Les Miserables- Anne Hathaway

My Pick: The Sessions- Helen Hunt

Check back for the final winning ticket!! 

Oscar Predictions Part Deux

We're going to run through ALL the technical awards.  They're mostly pretty tough, so I'm making a lot of "safe" picks, just for future bragging rights.

Also, there will be no Razzie analysis, That's My Boy will sweep.

Best Cinematography:

This one seems to have a clear winner in Life of Pi.  I'm under the strong belief that the film will walk away with the most awards on Sunday.  However, it's not a walkover due to the fact that Roger Deakins, photographer of Skyfall, has never won an Oscar in his now tenth try.  Also his hair glows with the sparkle of the moon.  But still, hard to knock Life of Pi.

Winner: Life of Pi- Claudio Miranda

My Pick: Life of Pi

Best Film Editing:

In a surprising twist, Silver Linings Playbook won the ACE awards, but unfortunately, the ACE awards do not always predict the Oscar winner.  William Goldenberg is the favorite, but for WHICH FILM??!?  Not hard, the correct answer is Argo, due to the fact that more people liked Argo than Zero Dark Thrity (with the large exception of myself).  In many tech categories, that's enough to bank a win.  Also, Argo is a big favorite to win Best Picture, but not to win anything else except this category, so this is pretty much a lock.

Winner: Argo

My Pick: Zero Dark Thirty

Best Production Design:

So the genius Vegas oddsmakers basically split between Les Miserables and Anna Karenina.  Far be it from me to call them crazy, but honestly, the academy is going to honor one of the other GREAT films in the category.  The ADG honored Les Mis along with Django (which isn't up), and I can't say Anna Karenina had nothing more than "interesting" production design.  But sometimes subtlety is the best medicine, so Lincoln should have a legitimate shot (as I would like it to).  But then again, Life of Pi is probably going to do another mini sweep â la Hugo. WOW, what a tight race!

Winner: Life of PI

My Pick: Lincoln

Best Costume Design:

Anna Karenina would seem like a lock, but I genuinely think that voters will vote on what they think to be a better film overall.  No, not Mirror Mirror, although fantasy films have done well in the past.  Still, go with the other favorite, and the deserving film, Les Miserables.

Winner: Les Miserables

My Pick: Les Miserables

Best Makeup/Hair Styling

Gotta be Les Mis. I mean those people looked so eloquently miserable that I just knew they were "the miserables."

Winner:Les Miserables

My Pick: Norbit

Best Sound Mixing

You could go with any of the films, but since this one is hard to predict an upset, I think most will gravitate towards the live signing of Les Mis, making it a big favorite.  Unless voters didn't like the movie that much.  Then look for Skyfall or even Argo to win.

Winner: Les Miserables

My Pick: Skyfall

Best Sound Editing

This category rarely goes to a movie that isn't even nominated for sound mixing, so you think the Vegas Oddsmakers would've done there homework and not heavily favored Zero Dark Thirty.  But, not being the case, I guess there mentality was, it's the only chance the film has at winning anything.  Unfortunately, it will probably be another excuse to give love to Life of Pi, although ZDT definitely deserves some consideration.

Winner: Life of Pi

My Pick: Zero Dark Thirty

Best Visual Effects

Even if Life of Pi doesn't win all of the technical awards, it will win this one.
Winner: Life of Pi
My Pick: Marvel's The Avengers

That's it for now, tomorrow we'll have the rest!!!

Final Oscar Predictions- Music and Shorts

Well, here we are.  With just a few days to go in the award season, the Oscar final voting is closed and they're tallying the votes as we speak.  Now is the time where all the Oscar buffs pick their favorites and winners, and we all get to see how many drugs they're on.

Luckily I skipped the crack this year because, as it happens, there are several really good races to look forward to.  but while everyone is talking about who will win Best Director or Best Supporting Actor, I'm just sitting here thinking, what if Argo becomes the first film in almost 75 years to win Best Picture and nothing else!!

Hope you've seen all of the movies, if not you still have four days, so get out there!  And yes you can skip the Spirit Awards to go to the movies, unless you're a complete hipster gauffing at this article, in which case you probably will never see all the movies anyway (but keep RedBoxing away).

Anyway, let's just get through this, I'm doing this in parts, starting with the shorts and music.

Best Documentary Short:

It's a shame nobody EVER watches the docu shorts.  NO ONE.  So, I don't know how the Vegas odds makers pick a favorite.  I guess it would be most available, because who is really going to vote for something they don't see?

Check out the big favorite Open Heart right here:

http://openheartfilm.com

Winner: Open Heart

Best Live Action Short:

So there is one crazy oddsmaker that's saying Curfew is a lock.  One thing you have to realize, however, is that there are no locks.  So if you get a chance to get 4 to 1 on Death of a Shadow, I can safely say you have correct odds.  But still, if it's all even money go with the "favorite."

Check out the film here:

http://curfewfilm.com

Winner: Curfew

Best Animated Short:

This category is so bloated.  Everyone who saw Wreck it Ralph saw Paperman at the beginning.  It was sweet, but obvious things rarely win for the smaller categories.  My pick is The Simpsons short, and the reason is not because I'm drunk.  The Simpsons is one of the all-time great shows, a favorite amongst the leftist Hollywood crowd, even through they would never have time to watch it (case and point on it's ratings declining).  So why not honor it?  The press would be fantastic for the show at best, and at worst, they would be giving beloved creators a prize they would only dream of getting.

Winner: Maggie Simpson in The Longest Day Care.

Best Original Song:

Adele seems to be a walkover.  When voters are filling out the ballots, they may be thinking, "oh, what if we gave Seth an Oscar, and he's hosting!!"  and then they will all collectively say, "but, Adele."  She's just one you can't eff with.

Winner: "Skyfall" from Skyfall

Best Original Score:

This is the first real race we have.  Honestly, it depends on how voters feel about the film, and therefore, Argo would be in the discussion, given that multiple nominee Alexandre Desplat has never won.  But I have a feeling we're going to have more than a little love for Life of Pi on Sunday, so all of my upsets are probably going to go to that.

Winner: Life of Pi- Mychael Danna.

My next post is tomorrow, we'll tackle ALL of the technical categories.

Argo sails to DGA win

-Zach Attack
Check out my "The Movies" tab!!!