OSCAR PREDICTIONS ARE HERE!!! IMPRESS YOUR FRIENDS!!!

As the BAFTAs bring pre Oscar season to a close (no I do not count the Spirit Awards), and with just five days left before Oscar Ballots need to be in for tally, we can begin the most entertaining project of the year, compiling predictions for every Oscar category.  Brace yourself for a flurry of trivia that will be sure to make you the smartest of your friends and family come March 2nd.  Here we go:

Best Picture

American Hustle

Captain Phillips

Dallas Buyers Club

Gravity

Her

Nebraska

Philomena

12 Years a Slave

The Wolf of Wall Street

Will and Should Win- 12 Years a Slave

There is no evidence in Oscar history to disprove that 12 Years a Slave will not win.  Although both Gravity (the Best Director favorite) and American Hustle both received the most nominations, 12 Years a Slave has the Golden Globe, Critics Choice and Producer’s Guild, and is poised to win the BAFTAs top prize.  The only thing missing from this résumé is a DGA win, which went to Gravity, causing many to believe that Gravity is the favorite.  However, this is not true.  Everything that history has told us will result in a sharing of awards, the lion’s share going to Gravity, but 12 Years taking home Best Picture á la Shakespeare in Love splitting with Saving Private Ryan.  Then there’s the guys who actually orchestrated the Shakespeare in Love Oscar run, and there film American Hustle.  We cannot denounce the film’s presence, but if we’re going by Vegas betting odds, American Hustle will win nothing, since it is not favored in any category.  Queue the dramatics…?

One more thing to get straight, the other nominated films are very good (especially Her), however, they have absolutely NO chance at taking home Best Picture.  3 films with a chance is definitely a crowd, so sorry to crush your dreams of a Philomena Best Picture, but it just won’t happen, and it’s better that you find out this way, rather than pull a Mitt Romney.

Best Director

12 Years a Slave - Steve McQueen

American Hustle- David O. Russell

Gravity- Alfonso Cuarón

Nebraska- Alexander Payne

The Wolf of Wall Street- Martin Scorsese

Will and Should win- Alfonso Cuarón

I would’ve liked to see Spike Jonze be up this year.  If subtlety is really what the Academy voters are nominating, then why David O. Russell?  Anyway, the only argument needed to put money down on this is the fact that Cuarón won the DGA award, which has been the uber-predictor of this race for some time.  Gravity’s tie with 12 Years a Slave at the Producers Guild just lets everyone know that they are not going to count out Gravity from top awards, but this is really the only award it’s favored to win.  I would not take a parlay on either Gravity or 12 Years to sweep Picture/Director, but it is interesting that no African-American or Latin American has ever won Best Director, and this year will basically be one or the other.  Vive La Diversité!

Best Actor

12 Years a Slave- Chiwetel Ejiofer

American Hustle- Christian Bale

Dallas Buyers Club- Matthew McConaughey

Nebraska- Bruce Dern

The Wolf of Wall Street- Leonardo Dicaprio

Will Win- Matthew McConaughey

Should Win- Bruce Dern

Again, I’m going to start by expressing my befuddlement and subtle anger that Tom Hanks wasn’t nominated, despite “I’m the Captain Phillips now!” Best Picture nod.  Matthew McConaughey won the Globe and the SAG, there’s no stopping him.  Burce Dern was hanging tough until then, and I would really like to see someone win for not playing a real life person or drug addict (or both as in McConaughey’s case).  Dallas Buyers Club was awesome though, and McConaughey winning is a good way to not only honor is awesome last TWO years, but show the fans that the don’t care how many shitty movies you make, if you’re GOOD, you’re good.  Period. 

And no talk of Leo winning.  A leading actor who was not nominated for the SAG has never won an Oscar.

Best Actress

American Hustle- Amy Adams

August: Osage County- Meryl Streep

Blue Jasmine- Cate Blanchett

Gravity- Sandra Bullock

Philomena- Judi Dench

Will and Should Win-Cate Blanchett

A great group of previous winners and Amy Adams.  This category is a wash, Cate Blanchett has won every award for this film known to human kind, and even she believes she will win.  She is realistically going to get the most votes of any nominee in any category.  Don’t bet against her.

My girl from Blue is the Warmest Color, Adele Exarchopoulos, was absolutely outstanding this year, and I’m not saying she would have put up any kind of contention against Blanchett, but she and the film certainly deserve some recognition, despite its NC-17 rating.

Best Supporting Actor

12 Years a Slave- Michael Fassbinder

American Hustle- Bradley Cooper

Captain Phillips- Barkhad Abdi

Dallas Buyers Club- Jared Leto

The Wolf of Wall Street- Jonah Hill

Will and Should win- Jared Leto

Yeah, don’t even think twice about this, Jared Leto’s story is awesome and he has a ton of fans.  He was also brilliant in Dallas Buyers Club, a role that is poised to win an Oscar.  None of the other guys can compete.

Best Supporting Actress

12 Years a Slave- Lupita Nyong'o

American Hustle- Jennifer Lawrence

August: Osage County- Julia Roberts

Blue Jasmine- Sally Hawkins

Nebraska- June Squibb

Will win- Jennifer Lawrence

Should win- Lupita Nyong’o

This is the only real race.  It’s almost a coin flip between Nyong’o and Jennifer Lawrence, but Lawrence just won last year, and was miscast in American Hustle in my opinion.  Nyong’o had a powerful performance, and being previously unknown, is a raw standout, compared to Lawrence, who was the top grossing film star of 2013.  Really tough to call, but American Hustle has to be the favorite in some category right?  Don't really agree, but with the BAFTA win, it's clear J Law has the base to take this one away from a SAG winner.

Best Original Screenplay

American Hustle- David O. Russell and Eric Singer

Blue Jasmine- Woody Allen

Dallas Buyers Club- Craig Borten and Melisa Wallack

Her- Spike Jonze

Nebraska- Bob Nelson

Will and Should win- Her

If you thought the last category was close, this is even closer.  It’s a total toss between Her and American Hustle.  Her has won more script awards, but Hustle has yet to relly be favored in anything.  With Weinstein backing, we could easily see a turn of tables here.  I doubt there will be a third contender that would benefit from a split, but if there was it would be Woody Allen, who has won this category three times.

Best Adapted Screenplay

12 Years a Slave- John Ridley

Before Midnight- Julie Deply, Ethan Hawke and Richard Linklater

Captain Phillips- Billy Ray

Philomena- Steve Coogan and Jeff Pope

The Wolf of Wall Street- Terence Winter

Will and Should win- 12 Years a Slave

This is another walkover.  The only reason 12 Years doesn’t have a Writers Guild Award credit is because it was deemed ineligible, allowing Captain Phillips to take it.  Don’t be fooled, because that means nothing (see: last year- Quentin Tarantino).

Best Animated Feature

The Croods

Despicable Me 2

Ernest & Celestine

Frozen

The Wind Rises

Will Win- Frozen

Should Win-The Wind Rises

I haven’t really seen any of these, but they’re already making Frozen into a Broadway musical.  Everybody loves Frozen, even little kids.  In theory, The Wind Rises, should have a shot, being Miyazaki’s last film ever and having a release two weeks before the awards, but a lot of critics have expressed that it’s only for true fans of Miyazaki, and he’s already lost this category once.  Of course the film is still brilliant.

Best Foreign Language Film

The Broken Circle Breakdown (Belgium)

The Great Beauty (Italy(

The Hunt (Denmark)

The Missing Picture (Cambodia)

Omar (Palestine)

Will Win- The Great Beauty

Should Win- The Hunt

Foreign Film always brings a surprise.  The Great Beauty was nominated for the Golden Palm, is still in LA theaters and has won the Golden Globe.  But I can never call any Foreign Film a sure thing.  The Hunt has achieved regular acclaim and was up for the Golden Palm in 2012.  If you want a huge underdog pick, go with Cambodia’s first ever nominee with The Missing Picture, which is poised for release two weeks after the awards.  Sometimes, this category will award a film that has a release immediately after the awards to promote it, and they have taken awards awat from completely brilliant films like The Hunt and The Great Beauty.  The odds on it are currently 50-1, and I LIKE THOSE ODDS!

Best Documentary Feature

The Act of Killing

Cutie and the Boxer

Dirty Wars

The Square

Twenty Feet From Stardom

Will and Should win- The Act of Killing

This is another tough one.  The Square just took home the DGA, and honestly, it’s that good that it could be a favorite, but The Act of Killing has received consistent praise, along with a number of top ten lists, including the Sight and Sound Best Film of 2013.

I would also not count out 20 Feet From Stardom, a definite force being the highest grossing documentary of the bunch by a clear mile.  Definitely something a lot of documentary filmmakers would love to say.

Best Original Score

The Book Thief- John Williams

Gravity- Steven Price

Her- William Butler and Owen Pallett

Philomena- Alexandre Desplat

Saving Mr. Banks- Thomas Newman

Will Win- Gravity

Should Win- Her

This will either be Gravity or Her, unless we see voters take a turn back to big orchestral pieces.  Gravity makes the most sense since the score went extremely well with the impact of the scene, without being too “Pacific Rim” Her is a close second, and Saving Mr. Banks has an outside chance since it was shut out of everything else.

Best Original Song

"Happy" from Despicable Me 2- Pharrell Williams (Music and Lyrics)

"Let it Go" from Frozen- Kristen Anderson Lopez and Robert Lopez (Music and Lyrics)

"The Moon Song" from Her- Karen O (Music), Karen O and Spike Jonze (Lyrics)

"Ordinaty Love" from Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom- Paul Hewson, Dave Evans, Adam Clayton and Larry Mullen (Music), Paul Hewson (Lyrics)

Will Win- “Let it Go”

Should Win-“Alone yet not Alone”. ONLY KIDDING

Yeah, I know “Ordinary Love” won the Golden Globe, but Mandela didn’t have a sing-a-long. 

Best Cinematography

The Grandmaster- Philippe Le Sourd

Gravity- Emmanuel Lubezki

Inside Llewyn Davis- Bruno Delbonnel

Nebraska- Phendon Papamichael

Prisoners- Roger A. Deakins

Will and Should Win- Gravity

Easy one, Lubezki has been up five previous times and not won once.  This is a sure thing.

Best Costume Design

12 Years a Slave- Patricia Norris

American Hustle- Michael Wilkinson

The Grandmaster- William Chang Suk Ping

The Great Gatsby- Catherine Martin

The Invisible Woman- Michael O'Connor

Will Win- The Great Gatsby

Should Win- The Grandmaster

This could be the one American Hustle sneaks away with, but my money is on Gatsby.  The Grandmaster had excellent costumes, but unlikely that it was seen by everyone.  I doubt 12 Years a Slave has a shot, but it’s the definite third wheel in the race, thus completing a five win night.

Best FIlm Editing

12 Years a Slave- Joe Walker

American Hustle- Jay Cassidy, Crispin Struthers, Alan Baumgarten

Captain Phillips- Christopher Rouse

Dallas Buyers Club- John Mac McMurphy and Martin Pensa

Gravity- Alfonso Cuaron and Mark Sanger

Will Win- Gravity

Should Win- 12 Years a Slave

Ahhh, the Gravity technical award sweep continues.  Really surprised if Captain Phillips or 12 Years take this.

Best Makeup/Hairstyling

Dallas Buyers Club- Adruitha Lee and Robin Mathews

Jackass Presents: Bad Grandpa- Stephen Prouty

The Lone Ranger- Joel Harlow and Gloria Pasqua-Casny

Will and Should Win- Dallas Buyers Club

If the makeup people have a sense of humor, Bad Grandpa would win.  Have you met a makeup person with a sense of humor?  Well, maybe, but those people probably loved Dallas Buyers Club.

Best Production Design

12 Years a Slave- Adam Stockhausen (Production Design) Alice Baker (Set Decoration)

American Hustle- Judy Becker (Production Design), Heather Loeffler (Set Decoration)

Gravity- Andy Nicholson (Production Design) Rose Goodwin and Joanne Woodward (Set Decoration)

The Great Gatsby- Catherine Martin (Production Design), Beverly Dunn (Set Decoration)

Her- K.K. Barrett (Production Design) Gene Serdena (Set Decoration)

Will Win- The Great Gatsby

Should Win- Her

This one is totally up for grabs by anyone of these films.  The cool thing about this category is, there is so much politics that Gatsby’s beautiful and elaborate production design, may take home the top prize.  The Art Director’s Guild Awards doesn’t help much with this, giving prizes to Gatsby, Gravity and Her.  You should probably choose your winner from those three.

Best Sound Mixing

Captain Phillips- Chris Burdon, Mark Taylor, Mike Prestwood Smith and Chris Munro

Gravity- Skip Lievsay, Niv Adiri, Christopher Benstead and Chris Munro

The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug- Christopher Boyes, Michael Hedges, Michael Semanick and Tony Johnson

Inside Llewyn Davis- Skip Lievsay, Greg Orloff and Peter F. Kurland

Lone Survivior- Andy Koyama, Beau Borders and David Brownlow

Will and Should Win-Gravity

I’m still going with Gravity for all the tech stuff.

 Best Sound Editing

All is Lost- Steve Boeddeker and Richard Hymns

Captain Phillips- Oliver Tarney

Gravity- Glenn Freemantle

The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug- Brent Burge

Lone Survivor- Wylie Stateman

Will and Should win- Gravity

Well, Gravity was the best movie out of all of them, right?

Best Visual Effects

Gravity- Tim Webber, Chris Lawrence, Dave Shirk and Neil Corbould

The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug- Joe Letteri, Eric Saindon, David Clayton and Eric Reynolds

Iron Man 3- Christopher Townsend, Guy Williams, Erik Nash and Dan Sudick

The Lone Ranger- Tim Alexander, Gary Brozenich, Edson Williams and John Frazier

Star Trek Into Darkness- Roger Guyett, Patrick Tubach, Ben Grossman and Burt Dalton

Will and Should win- Gravity

Gravity can be shut out of every other category but will never lose this one.  If my predictions are right, this should complete a set of six awards for the film.

Thanks for reading!

This will also be in a tab when I post next, until then, happy viewing.