SAG Awards, Yo!

Over the last 19 years, the SAG awards have single-handedly made predicting the Oscars so easy that despite the Academy’s best efforts to be "unpredictable," the Oscars, to many, have fallen irrelevant.  

Okay maybe that is too much from someone who loves the Hollywood award season as much as me, but having the SAGs predict nearly every Oscar surprise since it's existence has gotten the entire industry, as well as Oscar enthusiasts watching intently.

Indeed, the Oscar nominations are sure to bring complications when predicting exactly what will win this year.  With the absence of Ben Affleck's nomination for Argo, it seemed like the film's chances at Best Picture were over.  That changed this weekend.

After a surprising Best Picture win at the Producer's Guild Awards, Argo was honored by the Screen Actor's Guild with their top prize for Best Cast. 

The evening at the Shrine auditorium began as always, with two important wins in the supporting acting categories.  The first, Tommy Lee Jones, whose performance as Thaddeus Stevens in Lincoln was thought to be lock for an Oscar until Christoph Waltz won the Golden Globe for Django Unchained.  Waltz, having not been nominated for a SAG may create a somewhat close race for the Oscar, but, as a general rule, if there is a tight race, you should ALWAYS pick whoever wins the SAG to win the Oscar.  Jones began the trend of winners who were not present at the Shrine, perhaps because he didn't want to make the trip to South Central, or perhaps he no longer wanted to be the center of public ridicule for NOT smiling and LOOKING amused (SMDH!).  

Also repeating her Globe win, Anne Hathaway looks to be a lock for her brief role in Les Miserables.

After a wonderful tribute to Dick van Dyke, and several painfully predictable TV awards (except for "Downton" DAYUM!), the tight race for Best Actress had a break, when Jennifer Lawrence, who seems to be Harvey Weinstein's darling this year (as she is his only chance at one of his films winning an Oscar), won for Silver Linings Playbook. 

In a less tight race, Daniel Day-Lewis is poised to become the first actor ever in Oscars 85 years, to win a third Best Actor.

Although Lincoln seemed to be the huge favorite just two weeks ago, Argo may be close on its heels.  The REAL deciding factor will be whether the non-Oscar nominated Ben Affleck wins the Director's Guild Award on Saturday.  It is unheard of for Best Picture Oscars to go to films without a Best Director nomination, as it has only happened ONCE since the early 1930s (1989's Driving Miss Daisy), and in each of the last six years the Best Picture winner has also won Best Director.

Such a dilemma begs the quotation from another Oscar Nominee,

Don't forget to check out the updated page on "The Movies" that are nominated this year

http://golddiggerawards.blogspot.com/p/projections.html

Globen Golds

Argo wins big at the Globes, has no chance at Oscar.

Oscar Noms Interesting, Reveal Predictable Oscars

The 85^th Oscar nominees are out, and while everyone is scurrying to claim every nominee a “surprise,” I’ve been accustomed to the deepest surprises when I tune in that fateful (now Thursday) morning at 5:30am.  I have rarely been hurt by snubs, however.

This year, the surprise “snub” was the lack of Zero Dark Thirty director Kathryn Bigelow in the Best Director category.  Certainly, a hard year to score a nomination, but I sincerely thought, with all of the promoting on Los Angeles television (the wrong place to advertise I guess), that the film would have enough support to contend with Lincoln for Best Picture, especially after having won several critics’ awards.

Now, there’s no stopping Steven Spielberg’s biopic of our 16^th President.  The question is, how many awards will it take.  With a number of acting awards (each of whom have won at least once already), it could come away with the most awards in years (or potentially EVER if it’s a clean sweep).  However, look for some noise to the other films that scored several nominations.  Silver Linings Playbook looks to have more support with Hervey Weinstein backing it, and it now appears Jennifer Lawrence may edge out Jessica Chastain for Best Actress (unfortunately), pending what the SAG voters decide.  Look for the film to surprise in another acting category and/or screenplay.

Life of Pi will most likely have a mini-sweep a la Hugo last year, but it really depends on how the other films, such as Anna Karenina, promote their films.  Or if Lincoln just takes Cinematography and Editing.

Unfortunately, there was nothing from Skyfall, nor any “out-of-nowhere” nominations that I was looking for.  Where was the Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close Best Picture nomination from last year.  Or The Blind Side? Amour was a pleasant surprise in the Best Picture category, but it was no surprise to those in the previous years.

However, I may be spoiled, as are many followers.  In recent years, the Academy has dispersed the awards amongst two or three films in order to “share the love.”  That doesn’t seem to be the case this year.  It seems that we will have no surprises, and, for the first time in several years, we will a see a film that wins the majority of the awards. The question only remains, how many little gold men will Lincoln take away?

Well I can’t decide until I’ve seen the Golden Globes this Sunday.  As you may know, the Globes are painfully predictable when it comes to films, but when it comes to their TV nominations, it is literally as if, in every category, the award that you think has the least chance of winning, wins.  I fear that the Globes might begin to go crazy with giving awards to smaller pictures to incentivize people to go see them (and possibly like them!), or even do like the National Board of Review used to do in the 1930s and 40s, and intentionally give awards to films not nominated for Oscars.  But just giving outside possibilities, I’ll just see you all when Lincoln wins everything.

Oscar noms out thursday!!

Finally, the ever-pretentious Golden Globes will have minimal effect on the Oscar nominations this year.  For the first time in decades, the Oscar Nominations will be announced BEFORE the Hollywood Foreign Press Asscociation gets a chance to crown their winners.  

For some perspective on that, films that had won the Golden Globe for best Drama film, such as Babel, Atonement, The Aviator, andThe Hours may not have been up for nearly as many (if any) Oscars, and several more films may never have won nearly as many awards.

The real test of predicting the nominations is doing it without the Director's Guild nominations coming out.  Regardless, film buffs all over the country will have their papers out Thursday morning, and the odds will look something like this:

The Predictions

Best Picture

(Since the Oscars no longer have a set number of nominations, I'll just post ten films, which is the maximum allowed, in order of their chances of being nominated).

1. Lincoln

2. Zero Dark Thirty

3. Argo

4. Silver Linings Playbook

5. Les Miserables

6. Life of Pi

7. Beasts of the Southern Wild

8. Moonrise Kingdom

9. Django Unchained

10. The Master

We can most likely see the first five nominated on Thursday, but the question is, do any of the other films have a chance at scoring a nomination.  Life of Pi has the best chance, having performed far better at the box office than expected, but smaller films such as Beasts of the Southern Wild and Moonrise Kingdom have the potential to get Best Picture votes with far fewer support from wins in other categories, after scoring a nomination.  Django may have been nominated for a Golden Globe for drama, but because of the recent shooting incidents, it is far less likely to get any kind of support.  Finally, The Master is a kind of film that has the potential to be nominated with the new voting policy, as it is likely to sneak in with enough 1st place votes (although it probably won't get many overall).  As Lincoln and Zero Dark Thirty are the two favorites, look for them to both score a TON of nominations.  As for Skyfall, as good as it was, it just doesn't have a realistic chance at being nominated.

Best Actor

Bradley Cooper for Silver Linings Playbook

Daniel Day-Lewis for Lincoln

John Hawkes for The Sessions

Hugh Jackman for Les Miserables

Denzel Washington for Flight

Alternate: Joaquin Phoenix for The Master

I honestly wish I could say that someone else other than those listed will be nominated, but I just can't.  Look for Phoenix to possibly be nominated over Hugh Jackman.

Best Actress

Jessica Chastain for Zero Dark Thirty

Marion Cotillard for Rust and Bone

Jennifer Lawrence for Silver Linings Playbook

Emmanuelle Rive for Amour

Quvenzhané Wallis for Beasts of the Southern Wild.

Alternate: Naomi Watts for The Impossible

In a tight race between Chastain and Lawrence, the other nominees seem to be irrelevant.  However, Watts was up for a SAG award, but I don't see her being up with a severe lack of screen time.  Amour's Riva has an interesting chance at scoring a nomination as the film continues it's wonderful press, but not having any kind of release may hurt her chances.  Finally, Wallis was not nominated for a SAG or Golden Globe, but could score a nomination to cap a fantastic year for black actors.

It should be noted however, 2012 has been, unfortunately, one of the worst years for female roles.  All of the films listed (bar Silver Linings) had very limited releases so far, and some may not even get to most markets before the Oscars are announced.

Best Supporting Actor

Alan Arkin for Argo

Javier Bardem for Skyfall

Robert De Niro for Silver Linings Playbook

Leonardo Dicaprio for Django Unchained

Tommy Lee Jones for Lincoln

Alternate: Matthew McConaughey for Magic Mike

This is the hardest category to predict.  You can see the old guys, Arkin, De Niro and Jones, for sure.  Some may scratch their heads when they see Phillip Seymour Hoffman absent for his bid with The Master, and he very well maybe nominated after having been nominated for SAG and the Globe.  The Master, however, may not get a lot of love from the Oscars, due to it being too unconventional. Other potential nominees include Dwight Henry in Beasts of the Southern Wild and Christoph Waltz for Django Unchained.  I included Bardem because there will be a surprise in this category, and also McConaughey to cover my bases.  In truth, though, you could see a nomination even crazier that that.

Best Supporting Actress

Sally Field for Lincoln

Anne Hathaway for Les Miserables

Helen Hunt for The Sessions

Nicole Kidman for The Paperboy

Maggie Smith for The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel

Alternate: Judi Dench for Skyfall

Another pretty tight race.  Sally Field has won the only notable awards so far, however, she has already won an Oscar twice.  We could see Anne Hathaway gain some momentum, depending on how many nominations her film receives.  As for the rest, it's wide open.  Nicole Kidman was a surprise SAG nomination, and hence has had some views from Academy voters that may give her a nomination as well (a la Melissa Leo in Frozen River).  Old british winners and veterans of the Oscar races, Dench and Smith will surely score nominations if their films score well in other categories.

Best Director

Ben Affleck for Argo

Kathryn Bigelow for Zero Dark Thirty

Tom Hooper for Les Mieserables

Ang Lee for Life of Pi

Steven Spielberg for Lincoln

Alternate: David O. Russel for Silver Linings Playbook

I always look for a surprise in the Best Director category.  Foreign directors are no stranger to this category, so Michael Heneke could possibly be nominated for Amour.  Other than that, what you see is what you get, I would've included Quentin Tarantino, but he seems to be at the forefront of the attack on gun violence in Hollywood.

Best Original Screenplay

Paul Thomas Anderson for The Master

Wes Anderson and Roman Coppola for Moonrise Kingdom

Mark Boal for Zero Dark Thirty

John Gatins for Flight

Michael Heneke for Amour

Alternate: Rian Johnson for Looper

With the banning of Django from this category, it becomes a bit easier to predict.  Mark Boal will most likely repeat his win from 2009's The Hurt Locker in the Acaedemy's tireless effort to make the awards exciting until the Best Picture ballot is opened.  ZDT is the only film that could potentially take out Lincoln for Best Picture, so it may already be a lock in this category.  The other films are there because they were all wonderful, and voters think they deserve to have their names called more than once during the night.

Best Adapted Screenplay

Tony Kushner, John Logan and Paul Webb for Lincoln

Ben Lewin for The Sessions

David Magee for Life of Pi

David O. Russell for Silver Linings Playbook

Chris Terrio for Argo

Alternate: Stephen Chbosky for The Perks of Being a Wallflower

Chbosky was a surprise at the WGA award nominations, but it's going to be hard to fit into the rest of the pack.  Les Mis is absent due to ineligibility, so that helps the small films chances a little bit.

So thats the end, for now.  

Don't forget to watch the nomination announcement telecast, coverage beginning at 5:30am and can be seen on E! and KTLA.