Our Final post pre Oscar is upon us. I've included potential surprises in each of the categories where applicable.
Best Picture
Will Win: Birdman
Should Win: Boyhood
How could Hollywood ever resist an attempt to award a film
about entertainment? Why would any of us
ever think that a film about regular people would ever win? The last film that was close to about a
normal person was The Hurt Locker, as
each of the last five years the Academy has honored only historical biopics and
movies about the movies. This trend
fixes to continue, and the question may is for how long. This seems to be a frustrating year for the
Academy, as everyone is talking phooey amount them almost nonstop this award
season, so if they choose a less controversial film, look for Boyhood or ever The Grand Budapest Hotel to take the cake. But with Birdman’s
win at the PGA and DGA, it seems completely obvious that that will be the
winner, because those guilds are mostly the same people that will be voting at
the Oscars, and not those who choose the Globes and BAFTAs, which Birdman lost.
Best Actor
Will Win: Eddie Redmayne for The Theory of Everything
Should Win: Michael Keaton for Birdman
This is actually a much closer race than many are
predicting. Redmayne seemed to have the
race wrapped up shortly after the SAGs, however, with Birdman’s resurgence in the race, it seems weird that voters who
have already gone out of their way to be different from the critics and pick Birdman as Best Picture, would not stay
with Michael Keaton as Best Actor. Here’s
a little breakdown of the race:
The key is that Hollywood is not doing well financially, and as you may know everything done in America is done because of money. The academy will most likely use their power to crown Redmayne the new young star of Hollywood, in hopes he can sell tickets in the future, where as Keaton is not expected to be a leading actor in major films. You still can't count out Keaton because of Birdman's excellent campaign and new-found surge of attention, but if money is on the line, go where the money is. Always.
Best Actress
Will and Should Win: Julianne Moore for Still Alice
There is going to be a lot of absolute sure-thing winners in
this section, and this is one of them. Julianne
Moore has been up now five times and never won.
In fact, she is one of the few actresses to lose twice in the same year
for acting. She was utterly remarkable
and it would be a complete sock if she did not win, especially since
Witherspoon and Cotillard have already won, and the other two girls are just up
for their first time now. The real bet
is if Moore will cry in her acceptance speech or if she will say she feels “honored”
to be with the rest of the nominees
Best Supporting Actor
Will and Should Win: J.K. Simmons for Whiplash
Whiplash is an
underdog contender in a couple races, but this one is a sure bet. Simmons has won everything there is to win
for a supporting actor up to this point, although he is sort of a lead in the
film. A great role of an antagonist that
really delves deep into a relationship unlike one we have seen before in
film. If Simmons, a beloved veteran
actor of film, TV and Farmer’s insurance commercials, loses…just, no, he is not
going to lose. Bet the house.
Best Supporting Actress
Will and Should Win: Patricia Arquette for Boyhood
Sadly, this could be the only award Boyhood takes home, but if the film wins nothing else, Arquette
will win, as she has won virtually every award possible up till now. Therefore, if she loses, who wins? Emma Stone, I guess, but Boyhood has had a late campaign that favors Arquette, so this is a
pretty easy one.
Best Director
Will Win: Alejandro G. Inarritu for Birdman
Should Win: Richard Linklater for Boyhood
You can usually predict this one by just looking at who wins
the DGA. Inarritu is pretty much a lock,
even though Linklater has won more awards overall. The other directors have no chance, it’s
between these two and I would still be surprised (pleasantly of course) if
Linklater won. The only reason being is
that he is more established and has never won, or even been nominated for Best
Director before. Inarritu has, in his
slightly shorter career, also identified himself as an auteur, and the Oscars
will be ready to crown him Hollywood royalty.
Best Original Screenplay
Will Win: Wes Anderson for The Grand Budapest Hotel
Should Win: Richard Linklater for Boyhood
This race seems close, but in all honesty, I think Grand Budapest is a clear favorite. It’s fresh off a win at the WGA and is poised
to win several Oscars, but Birdman
could still sneak after its late surge.
I just think that the writers have already made up their minds between
the two, and they just like Wes Anderson as well, who has actually never won in
this category, so I would not be surprised if they gave Birdman director and Anderson Best script.
Best Adapted Screenplay
Will Win: for The Imitation Game
Should Win: Damien Chazelle for Whiplash
Not a great selection for a year with some great
adaptations. The Imitation Game has got to win something, right? It’s very possible that the Academy has such
a desire to spread the love to EVERY movie, and this for be Imitation Game’s chance at an Oscar, but
something like The Theory of Everything
may take it away. I doubt it
though. If Gone Girl was up, then there would be a much better race, but understanding
that film would involve people thinking about something, so might as well just
go with whatever Harvey says.
Best Animated Feature
Will Win: How to Train
Your Dragon 2
Should Win: Big Hero 6
Wow, never would’ve imagined this category without The LEGO Movie, but I guess a movie that
comes out in February just cannot get nominated anymore. HTTYD2
is kind of a lock, with Big Hero 6
being a huge underdog contender, whose only chance at winning is appealing to
those who don’t want something obvious.
Being that Big Hero 6 is the
only other film most voters are likely to have even watched, it has a small
chance.
Best Foreign-Language Film
Will Win: Wild Tales (Argentina)
Should Win: Ida (Poland)
This is a tough one.
I just have a hard time believing this race is between two movies with
strong religious themes, Ida and Leviathan. The latter won the Golden Globe and is the
handicapper’s odds-on-favorite, but this is my only real surprise pick, Wild Tales, which didn’t have a wide
release, is a less challenging film that the other two. Also, the film was just released again in
some markets, and I’ve noticed historically, Foreign Film has been used as sort
of a marketing tool for films with upcoming releases, that’s another reason why
I’m picking it.
Best Documentary Feature
Will and Should Win: Citizenfour
I’ve heard rumors that Virunga
is the underdog big of the bunch. If
that is the case then I guess your Documentary has to be on Netflix to win this
category, which is kind of weird. I
think enough people voting have seen and understand that Citizenfour is one of the boldest documentaries ever made, and
giving it to anything else would be pretty crazy.
