SAG and Golden Globe noms out!!

Didn't think it was worth mentioning but John Madden's Best Exotic Marigold Hotel was up for major awards at both, but I don't think it will be up for any Oscars except maybe Maggie Smith for Supporting Actress (BOOM!)

CCA's out, causes sigh of relief to no one

It seems every year all the award spectators (myself incuded) sit back and utter the comment, “this is a weak year for movies*.”

*(muvies if you’re a valley girl)

This comment is actually quite masochistic as a film goer.  It means that we think our job is hard.  But in reality, good films come out every year, and any award race is not short of any competition and last minute guessing.  So out duty as award followers is fun, but still stressful.  Picking the right films, when we know it’s sooooooo easy, having to spend several hundred dollars on movie tickets.  I guess it’s a more mild version of filmmaking itself.

However, if you’re playing along at home, chances are you have seen the Critics Choice Award nominations, which has become the first major ballot of nominations to come out over the last few years.  Unfortunately, the CCA is pretty much the same as the HFPA, just as eye-poking-ly pretentious, often times nominating movies the Oscars would shut out, and awarding prizes to films they want to push for Oscar.

So that means Lincoln is a lock, right?  Well I can’t of many things that would be potentially nominated for Oscar, and supposedly, the CCA couldn’t think of many other things to nominate.  So they nominated Lincoln.  For everything.  So, let see what has no chance of winning then…

Ok, so maybe, if Les Miserables is well received in the states, it might have a shot, but I would look for the little random movie at this point that may get pushed by the CCA and othes.  My bet was already Moonrise Kingdom, although Wes Anderson’s lack of a director nomination hurts it.  So we turn to Silver Linings Playbook, a movie I called dead in the Oscar race until the National Board of Review decided to give Bradley Cooper Best Actor.  David O. Russell being up for another CCA after his follow-up to The Fighter helps it a lot, but look for The Weinsteins to push Cooper ahead of the movie.  Beasts of the Southern Wild is also one to watch.

That leaves the fourth-coming Zero Dark Thirty.  A little movie that has swept the NBR and the New York Film Critics Circle, and does not look to stop with it’s highly anticipated wide release.  This maybe tied for the favorite with Lincoln, however, although anticipated, it comes out at the same time as several other huge blockbusters.  It's limited release won't have anything on The Hobbit coming out this weekend, and the wide release isn't scheduled until January.  The gap in release date from the early wins may hurt it, but Los Angeles is littered with ZDT ads, so that might be good for its award stock.

Check the noms in the award section, until then, I'm out.

In the beginning...

So, does anyone still care (besides me) what will be nominated?  If you're looking at the trades this early, the only thing you look for is previous winners and nominees' new work. A few obvious standouts include:

Steven Spielberg-  Nominated for Best Picture last year, he has got the biggest and most publicized epic of the upcoming award season.  Honestly, biopics are not "the business" when it comes to picking potential Best Pictures, and thus are questionable as potential nominees, but Lincoln has multiple Oscar winners and is slated to make a good deal of money on it's investments, something the Producers will always eat up.

Quentin Tarantino- Django Unchained has the makings of another Oscar run for Quentin, with his old formula and new crowd of former Oscar winners and nominees (some old).  The only question is, how much do people still care about the hyper-violent a-typical Tarantino?

Paul Thomas Anderson- The Master was the penultimate in overacting, a mild average rating and not a lot of money will probably mean it will be shut out of most categories.

Ang Lee- Life of Pi looks bomb.  Hugely popular novel, but fantasy doesn't seem to always do well.  It will have to get miraculous reception from critics and audiences, and probably need a lot of campaigning.

Ditto for The Hobbit, despite it's predecessors.

Robert Zemeckis- He has Flight coming out, and after watching the trailer, I think it may have a chance if it brings something truly different that separates itself from the other Denzel Washington movies of the last 20 years.  It may be a surprise.

Recent Winners Tom Hooper (Les Miserables), Kathryne Bigelow (Zero Dark Thirty) and the Coen Brothers (Inside Llewyn Davis) have all received mild attention, and should be under the scope as they're released in the next couple months.

The Wachowski's could have made a film like "When Larry Became Lana," (seriously an amazing story if you haven't heard about it), but instead did a crazy, high budget epic, and the first film from the siblings since those hilarious Matrix sequels.  The jury is out on Cloud Atlas until it's seen.

The wrap- Argo was not a masterpiece, but was pretty good and could sneak into a few categories in what seems like a weak year.  Joe Wright adapted Anna Karenina again in an ever-persistent attempt to turn world movie culture from it's ways of consistently adapting comic books to re-adapt 18th and 19th century classic novels for the 5th and 6th times.  Let's see how much the Oscars get behind it.
And as for Silent Hill 3D? Let me sleep on it...

A return for 2012

It seems like award buzz starts later and later every year.  I guess the movie watching public always forgets how unfunny the previous Oscars were, and thus looks to what the studios put out to sell tickets, reboots and threeboots of comic book-based films and remakes of the worst films in history.  Thankfully, now that we're heading into late november, we can start talking about the every-shrinking field of the for your consideration studio films.  Really that's all we can talk about aside from the changes to the actual Oscars themselves.



     I have to first say though, I was excited to hear the probable Oscar host is Seth MacFarlane, not an a-typical choice, but a popular one nonetheless.  I can absolutely imagine his insult humor bringing in a wider audience then the typical Whoopi/Billy/Martin/John Stewart crowd.  The Globes went a different way, going with Amy Poehler and Tina Fey, both of which will probably be nominees for TV, but they won't bring in a new audience then who is already watching, the middle aged women who are upset there is no Desperate Housewives and Good Wife on tonight.  I'm happy to say the Oscars won the host bid, but the Globes may have potentially lost some more decisive press for the pre Oscar season, as the Academy will be announcing it's nominees BEFORE the Globes are announced.

Honestly, good riddance, it will make it harder for suckas like me to predict what will be nominated, but it gives the globes more reason to make it's own name, rather than just "the prelude to the Oscars."  But the Globes should try to take themselves more seriously, (or completely sell out and get Aaaaarrrnold Schwartzeneagar as the new host).

More about the films later, but for now, let's celebrate the potential rebounding of the Oscars and the for your consideration films (hanging in the balance of a huge maybe).

Initial Reaction...???

So, I'm not trying to complicate things, but Meryl Streep was a pleasant upset.

Excited to FINALLY see an American win for playing a Brit, rather than visa versa, but Viola Davis seemed like a lock.  My B.

HowEVA, Jean Dujardin still won Best Actor, despite the Clooney luvin.  Also The Artist won Best Picture, as COMPLETELY expected, and some very moving speeches by both Dujardin (his vocalized George Valentin role was hilars) and Director Michel Hazanavicius.

Hugo did have a mini sweep, winning 5  awards in technical departments, tying The Artist.  The only other film that won multiple awards is The Iron Lady, both of which were surprising to me.

Still in awe, I'm going to sign off for the next few hours, after the celebrations have a look back.

Oscar Countdown

I been waaay to many places in the last week, including to what seems like every movie theater in Los Angeles County because I've been living and breathing the Oscars.  The culmination of all my anticipation results in mass posts and no sleep still trying to see all the movies.

Finally, the best day of the year has arrived.

But if your trying to find what to expect, don't over complicate the predictions (*coughEWcough*).
I've never been so disappointed by mainstream Oscar coverage, the best coverage I've seen in right here on KTLA, unfortunately they won't be on the red carpet (and neither will I curtsey of OTRC).

For all of you who think they know whats going on, or those of you who are just trying to figure it out I'll tell you lightly
The Artist will sweep.

It won't win every award, but thinking that any other film has a shot a Best Picture or Director is painfully optimistic.  Jean Dujardin also won the SAG so we can expect him to have a well prepared speech (he's probably desperately practicing his english in the mirror right now).

The Descendants has been making a large push from marketing very wisely, so Jean does have some competition from George Clooney.  We all know where good marketing gets your film, Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close was not well received by critics but was on every billboard and bus stop here in L.A. and thus slid in for a Best Picture Nomination.  That's how it's been since the beginning Oscar history, but when it comes to winning, you can't usually buy awards, you have to win the guild awards and get general support from your guild.  Everyone loves George, but he's won an Oscar and will have many more opportunities to win.

The moral of the story is- IT'S NOT COMPLICATED!!!
Last year, we heard all the Oscar "experts" pick David Fincher for best Director, despite the fact he lost the DAG, and apparently, Hallie Steinfeld was a "lock" for Best Supporting Actress.
This year I'm hearing that the Oscars love to spread the love around to different films, which has been true of recent years, but not this year.  The Artist should sweep in the same way we saw Slumdog Millionaire, and Return of the King take home numerous awards.

For a complete list of predictions, best bets, and straight up sensical picks check out the predictions tab, I'll be on live tomorrow from the AMPAS Pickford Center.

Sag winners

Live from Oscar Noms

aka Extremely Loud and Incredibly Whack

Stephen Daldry's 4th movie didn't bring him his 4th Oscar nomination, but his film somehow snuck in to one of 9 Best Picture nominations, despite some poor reviews.  Also, a surprise to see War Horse up over The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo, especially because it isn't up for any other major awards (aka it has no shot at winning).

All of my wildcard projections were right, however, the Oscars still managed to make it exciting, putting up surprise SAG noms Démian Bichir for A Better Life and Nick Nolte for Warrior.


As for Animated Feature, The Adventures of Tin Tin had it's short affair with awards end at the Globes and PGA last week, it wasn't even nominated for an Oscar.  Instead, we've got; a French noir mystery, A Cat in Paris, and a Spanish dream chasing story Chico and Rita.

Nailed the Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy noms (as shameless boil-over from the British schmoozing from last year), and I was (I swear) about to call out Margin Call for Best Original Screenplay, it did pretty well with the Critics, I thought they might give the smaller, debut feature some attention.

Too bad Shallene Woodley couldn't make it on for The Descendants, this may be a sign that the film is losing steam for the other races.  Instead Janet Mcteer was nominated for no other reason other than the fact that she is British and older.  Clooney is still the front runner for Best Actor, but his lead slowly grows smaller as the SAGs approach.

I'll get all the noms posted later today, The Artist is the current front-runner for Best Picture, but we could see a replay of the Globes where everything ends winning something.
In the meantime here's a link to the noms:
http://a.oscar.go.com/media/2012/pdf/nominees.pdf

Getting it in

soooo brad pitt didn't win... this is awkward.

listen, the Globes were pretty predictable, but the comedy/drama split kept all the races alive.
Best Actor is still between Jean Dujardin and George Clooney, Best Actress is close between Meryl Streep and Michelle Williams.

Not to mention Best Picture is still up in the air.  The PGA gave their nod to The Artist, but The Descendants is close behind, and don't forget about Hugo (that might be my pathetic attempt to put in my favorite in the race).

Anyway, my next post will be at 5am tomorrow so be awake, my nomination predictions are posted, but I'm actually hoping that I'm wrong (no too wrong please), but I'm hoping for some big nomination surprised tomorrow.

Until then, I'm out.

Live from the Globes

Chillin at the Hilton, I had to rush back to see the show.  Usually I can charm the red carpet security to let me in.
I guess weak award seasons make me weaker...

Anyway, the globes are on now, just a few awards in and Ricky Gervais gave perfect example of how stoned off crack the HFPA is.  Only to be topped by Laura Dern winning Best Actress in a Comedy Series.  The HFPA's wanking will probably come to a quaking climax when Brad Pitt is giving his acceptance speech (oh God, too late to turn back on that now...).

Anyway, the DGA noms are posted, I'll post the Globe winners after the show.

Unless Tilda Swinton wins -_-,
If there's two things that irk me, it's a Brit winning over a bunch of Americans and Tebow.
One down...