Oscar Noms

I always thought the Oscars showcased too much collusion and pretentiousness by nominating nine nominees every year to try and spread the most amount of love.

This time, we have… a little more focus.

Only eight Best Picture Nominees and four films leading the way with:

The Imitation Game (8 noms)

Birdman (9 noms)

Boyhood (6 noms)

The Grand Budapest Hotel (9 noms)

The remaining  Best Pic nominees:

The Imitation Game

Selma

The Theory of Everything

Whiplsh

Some may be surprised by the amount of love American Sniper received late in the award season, however Clint Eastwood was NOT nominated.  Instead, the Academy opted to nominate Bennett Miller for Foxcatcher, a surprise to probably everybody except me, who called Miller’s nomination.  However, despite a Director and Original Script nomination, Foxcatcher failed to nab a Best Pic nomination.

American Sniper’s Bradley Cooper continues to have this love affair with everyone else in Holywood, and it pays off with a nomination for Best Actor over a field of other contenders, including Selma’s Oyelowo.

Speaking of Selma, it was not shut out completely.  To show some progressivism, Selma was thrown a bone and given a Best Picture nomination…and that’s pretty much it!  It is also up for Original Song of course.  I thought it was a kind of all-or-nothing kind of deal, but shutting out the film might have unwanted lash back , so perhaps white guilt really did push this movie into the spotlight…never underestimate it’s power.

And Jennifer Aniston NOT being up actually means that nobody saw that movie, and those who did chose not to vote for her.

Finally, the by far the biggest surprise of the morning was The LEGO Movie NOT being nominated for Best Animated Feature.  Many, including myself, thought it was the favorite to win, and as we saw the race get down to really six movies, The LEGO Movie, having come out earliest, was primarily forgotten.  That annoying song in the movie is nominated however, which leads me to believe everything is NOT awesome.

Full list of Oscar noms in the Oscar tab, and more analysis coming 

Oscar Nomination Predictions

Don't forget to check them out live at 5:30 AM this Thursday.  They'll be announcing all categories live, and by they I mean Chris Pine, Alfonso Cuaron and J.J. Abrams, as well as Academy President Cheryl Boone Issacs.

Best Picture Predictions:

Since there is not a set number of nominees, I will just rank them in order of chance to be nominated.

1. Boyhood

2. Birdman

3. The Grand Budapest Hotel

4. The Theory of Everything

5. The Imitation Game

6. Whiplash

7. Gone Girl

8. American Sniper

9. Foxcatcher

10. Selma

11. Nightcrawler

12. Unbroken

Since the Academy changed their rules to the current format, we have seen 9 nominees each year.  I don’t expect this year to be different.  American Sniper had a late surge with it’s late release, but it may be too late to sneak into the top 9.  We can probably put Unbroken out of the discussion as well, since very few are still talking about it.  I would be surprised to not see at least the top 7, as Selma and Foxcatcher are the most vulnerable to be shut out.

*corrected- with American Sniper's DGA nomination, and seeing how there has never been a DGA nominee that has not been nominated for Best Picture since the nomination expansion, I swapped American Sniper to #8 (in other words: IN) and Selma out of the top 9.  Selma does still have a chance, but it's really all or nothing, so I predict it will be OUT of the major races, although may stand to be (pleasantly) surprised. 

Best Actor

Birdman- Michael Keaton

Foxcatcher- Steve Carell

The Imitation Game- Benedict Cumberbatch

Nightcrawler- Jake Gyllenhaal

The Theory of Everything- Eddie Redmayne

Alternate: Selma- David Oyelowo

These are the same nominees from the SAG and Globes, so it’s hard to see anyone coming out of left field in this race.  However, with such a wide field, we may be in for a surprise.  Keaton is a shoe-in to win, and Cumberbatch and Redmayne are shoe-ins to lose to him.  The last two nominations could just be the exact same as the SAG as listed above, or we could see a surprise sneak in from either Bradley Cooper (depending on how many people saw American Sniper) and/or Ralph Fiennes for The Grand Budapest Hotel.  With the later film’s Golden Globe win for Best Picture, it’s apparent that the movie is popular coming down to the wire, and the film is really carried by Fiennes character.  Look for some surprises in this category.

Best Actress

Gone Girl- Rosamund Pike

Still Alice- Julianne Moore

The Theory of Everything- Felicity Jones

Two Days, One Night- Marion Cotillard

Wild- Reese Witherspoon

Alternate: Cake- Jennifer Aniston

I firmly believe Moore is a lock to win over Pike, Jones and Witherspoon.  The last slot seems like it could be Aniston, who was up for a Globe and SAG.  But Cotillard has received the most critical acclaim for her performance in the Dardenne Brothers latest.  The only other option to those two would be Golden Globe winner Amy Adams, however Big Eyes was not necessarily a “for your consideration” campaign.

Best Supporting Actor

Birdman- Ed Norton

Boyhood- Ethan Hawke

Foxcatcher- Mark Ruffalo

The Judge- Robert Duvall

Whiplash- J.K. Simmons

Alternate: Inherent Vice- Josh Brolin

The most shallow competition of any category.  Simmons is a lock to win, and all the others were nominated for both the Globes and the SAGs, and all including Josh Brolin were up at the CCAs.  There really isn’t any other press for anybody else.

Best Supporting Actress

Birdman- Emma Stone

Boyhood- Patricia Arquette

The Imitation Game- Kiera Knightly

Into the Woods- Meryl Streep

Wild- Laura Dern

Alternate: St. Vincent- Naomi Watts

Dern is my outside pick to sneak in.  Expect Streep to get her 19^th nomination (!) but lose to Arquette.  Watts is the alternate based on St. Vincent’s only chance at a nomination is her and she also had a strong performance in Birdman as well.  Jessica Chastain snuck into the Globes shortlist for A Most Violent Year, but the film has not received the amount of attention it was expected to after winning the NBR.

Best Director

Birdman- Alejandro G. Inarritu

Boyhood- Richard Linklater

Foxcatcher- Bennet Miller

The Grand Budapest Hotel- Wes Anderson

Whiplash- Damien Chazelle

Alternate: Selma- Ava Duvernay

Duvernay just made it off my list, thanks to Selma’s bad press, the fact that 12 Years a Slave, another historical film about racism in the south, won last year, and the Academy has a long history of shutting out female directors.  I also left off David Fincher for Gone Girl, simply because I think that would be too predictable.  I was thinking of a couple years ago (2012), when the Best Director nominations were mostly unexpected.  I think we could see some surprises, including Whiplash’s young Chazelle and even Bennet Miller, who won Best Director at Cannes for Foxcatcher.

Best Original Screenplay

Birdman

Boyhood

Foxcatcher

The Grand Budapest Hotel

Nightcrawler

Alternate: Selma

This is the exact same as the CCAs and the WGA award nominations, except for Wihplash is now being considered an adapted screenplay by the Academt.  Selma still has a chance, as it was an inspiring script, but those five films will be vying for talk time between now and the end of February.

Best Adapted Screenplay

Gone Girl

The Imitation Game

The Theory of Everything

Wild

Whiplash

Alternate: Unbroken

With Whiplash in the adapted category now, it seems Inherent Vice is now probably out of the running for a nomination.  I think Wild’s success will continue with recognition here, unless the academy is desperate to throw a bone to Unbroken or Inherent Vice.

Best Animated Feature

Big Hero 6

The Boxtrolls

How to Train Your Dragon 2

The LEGO Movie

The Tale of Princess Kaguya

Alternate: Song of the Sea

With How to Train Your Dragon 2 winning the Golden Globe, it appears to not be a clear victory for The LEGO Movie.  As for the other nominees, Big Hero 6 got excellent press and The Boxtrolls had unprecedented success for a stop motion film.  The Tale of Princess Kaguya is Isao Takahata’s latest film of Japanese folklore may lose out to the slightly more popular Song of the Sea, done by the same people who were nominated in this category for The Secret of Kells in 2009.

Best Foreign-Language Film

Force Majeure (Turist) (Sweden)

Ida (Poland)

Leviathan (Russia)

Tangerines (Estonia)

Wild Tales (Argentina)

Alternate: Timbuktu (Mauritania)

Sweden, Poland and Russia (after Leviathan’s Globe win) are all locks to be up.  The Argentinian movie Wild Tales was nominated for several Goya awards and was in competition at Cannes, and having a name, especially for a Comedy, might benefit it here.  The last slot is up for grabs between two first time nominees, Mauritania and Estonia, I just went with Tangerines based on the Globe nomination.

Best Documentary Feature

The Case Against 8

Citizenfour

Last Days in Vietnam

Life Itself

The Overnighters

Alternate: Keep on Keepin’ On

Now that seems like a pretty well rounded category right?  A legal doc, a war doc, a social/cultural doc, a political/espionage doc and a doc about the Movies themselves.  I just don’t know where there would be room for a music doc like Keep on Keepin On, but then again, a music doc won last year.

72nd Annual Share the Love Fest

One thing I learned from the Globes last night is, the LOSERS don’t get any recognition apart from a free breakfast.  In an attempt to promote nominee awareness, I’ll focus a little on the surprising (and some not so surprising) losers in Beverly Hills last night.

Obviously, after Birdman won Best Screenplay over The Grand Budapest Hotel, we thought it was a shoe-in for Best Picture.  However, the Globes, in the ever popular trend to honor as many movies as possible, with no clear justifying sense of how it’s done but a clear reason why, gave Grand Budapest Best Picture.  That was the closest we were to a true snub.

Best Actor Drama hopefuls that were happy to not be running against Michael Keaton included four people playing real life people, and Jake Gyllenhaal, who was lucky enough to watch his sister win.  Anyway, Dr. King, John Du Pont and Alan Turing all came out losers to Stephan Hawking (in both the films and in life, since Hawking is the only one still alive.)  As I predicted, Eddie Redmayne was the winner for his portrayal in The Theory of Everything.  Just to prove it wasn’t a fluke to just recognize the movie once, the film also won Best Score, for what it’s worth.

Predictably, we heard speeches from winners J.K. Simmons, Patricia Arquette and Julianne Moore.  Also from Michael Keaton, giving Birdman two wins to tie The Theory of Everything and Boyhood, who obviously had a big night winning Best Picture Drama and Best Director.  Julianne Moore did turn out to be a loser as well, in Best Actress Comedy/Muscial for her role in David Cronenberg’s Maps to the Stars, for which she won Best Actress at Cannes in 2014.  Into the Woods’ Emily Blunt was also overlooked in favor of Amy Adams in Big Eyes as Margaret Keane.  A big win for her, although having lost an Oscar nomination five times now, does she even want to be nominated for Oscar this year, or quit while she’s ahead?  Unfortunately, her boring speech didn’t do her any favors either.  Best Speech?  That would have to be Original Song winner “Glory” from Selma:

 

DGA nominations come out tomorrow, Oscars come out on Thursday!

Globes Predictions

Just to keep it brief before the party starts, here's who we know will win at the Globes tonight:

Best Picture- Boyhood (Drama) Birdman (Comedy/Musical)
Best Actor (Comedy/Musical)- Michael Keaton (Birdman)
Best Actress (Drama)- Julianne Moore (Still Alice)
Best Supporting Actor- J.K. Simmons (Whiplash)
Best Supporting Actress- Patricia Arquette (Boyhood)


Best Director is likely to be Boyhood's Linklater, however, the ever pretentious Globes knows what they mean to the Oscar race, so they could decide to throw some wild cards in the race, including giving Director to Fincher or Inarritu.

Best Actor in a Drama will most likely be Eddie Redmayne as Stephen Hawking in The Theory of Everything, however, if he splits votes with Cumberbatch, look for a surprise victory for Selma's Oyelowo.

Best Actress in a Comedy/Muscial never has a huge impact on the Oscar race, and the Globes urge to use their power where it makes a difference.  Hence, I believe the favorite is, again Julianne Moore, this time in Maps to the Stars, however, Amy Adams could just as easily win for Big Eyes.

Finally, Screenplay will be either The Grand Budapest Hotel or Gone Girl, depending on how they want to spread around the awards.  If Fincher steals Best Director, then they'll give Wes Anderson screenplay for Grand Budapest.

BAFTA Nominations

The British Academy of Film and Television released their nominations for feature films in 2014 yesterday.  One thing we've learned from the awards in the past is that the British Academy always mixes in a blend of British and Hollywood films to make the films of their country seem more relevant.  

The truth is, British film is normally not so relevant in the rest of the award season as it is this year.  Two major films poised for several Oscar nominations, The Imitation Game and The Theory of Everything (both mediocrely reviewed biopics about historical geniuses, if you wanted to know the formula for getting a nomination) are made by British film companies and starring British people.  It's important to note that neither of these films have topped very many top 10 lists (unlike the other BAFTA nominees this year), however, the savior that is the Best British Film category will save one of them from being shut out right?

Actually, The BAFTA's started this whole trend of spreading the love around, and not caring who thinks what about it.  Since the early 80s, the BAFTA's have helped move award season to the true display of cronyism we see today, and create the makeup of award politics, boiling down to which colleagues do voters want to give a speech to (and, of course, more "creative" opportunities).

This has obviously taken a further turn with the availability to watch films pretty much anywhere, taking a vaudevillian hook to the old award season days, when actors, directors and producers had to truly campaign to get people to go watch their film, rather than just send them a screener.  However, the potential to illogically and arbitrarily give awards with no rhyme or reason begun with the BAFTA tactics of awarding the top award (Best Film) to a movie that would lose in a more specific category.

Examples include: Atonement, The Queen, Slumdog Millionaire, and The Full Monty all winning best film in their respective years and losing Best British Film to a film many may not have seen, or Jean de Florette winning Best Film and losing Best Foreign Film.

Go Figure.  Fortunately, we have a slightly more logical system, right?

If what you're interested in is the Oscars, then you need not pay attention to the BAFTAs, as nomination announcements coincides with Oscar balloting closing, so the films honored are just Brits being Brits pretty much every time.  But at least the BAFTAs aren't constantly chasing to be just like Oscar.  

Anyway, if you are familiar with British stereotypes, you're probably not surprised that the most nominated film at this years BAFTA is The Grand Budapest Hotel.  Some surprises did include Damien Chazelle's nomination for Best Director and Original Screenplay, a preview to what we will se from the Oscar nominations next week.  Steve Carell was considered Supporting Actor for playing John du Pont in Foxcatcher, which was otherwise pretty much ignored, as was Jennifer Aniston in Cake.  You can check the full list of the BAFTA's tab.

Selma update: although the movie was unsurprisingly ignored by the Brits, the Ohio film critics did give the film a number of awards, and a late wave of liberal artists pushing back at pre-release lash backs by outraged die-hards of President Johnson.  The real do-or-die prediction is the film winning the Golden Globes over Boyhood, if you want to try and beat the Vegas odds.  However the Globe film awards are usually much more predictably sacred than its TV awards, which often is given to the nominee you absolutely least expect.

Since Academy voting has ended, you can start making your first round of predictions for next weeks announcement.  wait till after the Globes and DGA nominee announcement to print your final draft. 

PGA award nominations

Good Afternoon and Happy New Year!  We are in the midst of a huge week in this year’s award season.  Yesterday the Producers’ Guild of America released nominations for their awards, and so did the Art Director’s Guild. 

Other major award nominations coming out this week include the acs’s, the dga and wga awards and the eddies, as well as the BAFTA’s tomorrow.  It’s all culminating in hollywoods biggest dress me up and get me drunk, jerk off festival, the 72nd Golden Globes.

In case you’re wondering, George Clooney will be there, he’s getting the cecil b demille award on Sunday, fresh off the heels of his extraordinary 2014, in which he was in The Monuments Men, and, uh, that’s it. 

If you haven’t heard of the Monutments men, it’s ok, nobody has.  It’s about a group of your favorite movie stars acting sarcastically and hunting for treasure , and starring the same bad guys as Raiders of the lost ark and the remains of the day.

It’s convenient because it might be up for razzies.

Anyway, the PGA awards bear strong resemblance to the Professional Golf Association, because if the Oscars were the hole, the PGA gets first drive to try and get as close to the hole as possible.  Each of the last seven years, they have struck a proverbial hole in one.

And by first drive, I’m discounting the Spirit awrds, who are pretty awful golfers and the guilds will just have to let them “play through.”

The only big story is the continuation from what you might have seen on the Sunday morning news show, controversy around Selma.  Ava Duvernay’s historical drama has been dragged under the bus by white news people in washington, who have nothing better to do until the new congressional clown car comes roaring back into town.

The controversy is of course the portrayal of LBJ as an obstacle in the fight for voting rights.  My opinion on that is here:

In my estimation, Selma was dropped in favor of American Sniper so I guess classical patriotism is not dead. In the world…

I stil don’t think American Sniper has much of a chance at being nominated by the Academy for Best Picture, as there are already 10 films that are potential Best Picture nominees.  The nomination ballots are due tomorrow, and the film is still playing only at ONE theater in Hollywood, and having not been up for anything else, it may be difficult for nomintiors to have sniped a copy (I fucking love puns).

The only thing the movie has going for it now is the fact that Bradley Cooper is, like, sooooooo popular.  Everyone wants to be near him…

Except his nipples.

Finally, the Art Directors Guild put up their nominations on Tuesday.  The Production Design Oscars are not always aligned with the guilds winners, but there has never been a film that has won an Oscar that was not at least nominated for a guild award since its inception in 2000.  We’re probably looking at The Grand Budapest Hotel or Into the Woods to pick up steam.

And that’s all for now, check back with me soon, and happy viewing!

NSFC Continue to Just not Give A F***

National Society of Film Critics Awards:

Best Film-
1. Goodbye to Language (25 Votes)
2. Boyhood (24)
3. Birdman and Mr. Turner (10 Votes Each)

Best Director-
1. Boyhood - Richard Linklater (36)
2. Goodbye to Language- Jean-Luc Godard (17)
3. Mr. Turner - Mike Leigh (12)

Best Actor
1. Mr. Turner- Timothy Spall (31)
2. Locke - Tom Hardy (10)
3. The Grand Budapest Hotel - Ralph Fiennes and Inherent Vice - Joaquin Phoenix (9)

Best Actress
1. The Immigrant and Two Days, One Night - Marion Cotillard (80)
2. Still Alice- Julianne Moore (35)
3. Lucy and Under the Skin - Scarlett Johansson (21)

Best Supporting Actor
1. Whiplash- J.K. Simmons (24)
2. Foxcathcer- Mark Ruffalo (21)
3. Birdman - Ed Norton (16)

Best Supporting Actress
1. Boyhood - Patricia Arquette (26)
2. Ida- Agata Kulesza (18)
3. Nightcrawler- Rene Russo (9)

Best Screenplay
1. The Grand Budapest Hotel- Wes Anderson (24)
2. Birman- Alejandro G. Iñarritu, Alexander Dinelaris Jr., Armando Bo and Inherent Vice- Paul Thomas Anderson (15)

Best Nonfiction Film
1. Citizenfour (56)
2. National Gallery (19)
3. The Overnighters (17)

Best Cinematography
1. Mr. Turner - Dick Pope (33)
2. The Immigrant- Darius Khondji (27)
3. Goodbye to Language- Fabrice Aragno (9)

In case you didn't think the National Society of Film Critics really don't care about the rest of award season, then where have you been?  Last year they gave Best Film to Inside Llewyn Davis, which was only up for ONE Oscar (Cinematography).  This year, unfortunately, their choice for the top prize will receive zero Oscar nominations, as it is ineligible for normal competition and France decided NOT to put up this film, made by one of the their most influential filmmakers in history.

Other than that, Arquette and Simmons continue their supporting performance tear, and are virtual locks for Oscars.  As you can imagine, that is generally the case when you win every major award prior, even the NSFC.

Nomination Balloting for the Oscars closes this Friday, so there is still time for those who are voting to see movies like Mr. Turner and Inherent Vice, both of which have been pretty much such out of all other major awards.