Oscar Nomination Predictions

Don't forget to check them out live at 5:30 AM this Thursday.  They'll be announcing all categories live, and by they I mean Chris Pine, Alfonso Cuaron and J.J. Abrams, as well as Academy President Cheryl Boone Issacs.

Best Picture Predictions:

Since there is not a set number of nominees, I will just rank them in order of chance to be nominated.

1. Boyhood

2. Birdman

3. The Grand Budapest Hotel

4. The Theory of Everything

5. The Imitation Game

6. Whiplash

7. Gone Girl

8. American Sniper

9. Foxcatcher

10. Selma

11. Nightcrawler

12. Unbroken

Since the Academy changed their rules to the current format, we have seen 9 nominees each year.  I don’t expect this year to be different.  American Sniper had a late surge with it’s late release, but it may be too late to sneak into the top 9.  We can probably put Unbroken out of the discussion as well, since very few are still talking about it.  I would be surprised to not see at least the top 7, as Selma and Foxcatcher are the most vulnerable to be shut out.

*corrected- with American Sniper's DGA nomination, and seeing how there has never been a DGA nominee that has not been nominated for Best Picture since the nomination expansion, I swapped American Sniper to #8 (in other words: IN) and Selma out of the top 9.  Selma does still have a chance, but it's really all or nothing, so I predict it will be OUT of the major races, although may stand to be (pleasantly) surprised. 

Best Actor

Birdman- Michael Keaton

Foxcatcher- Steve Carell

The Imitation Game- Benedict Cumberbatch

Nightcrawler- Jake Gyllenhaal

The Theory of Everything- Eddie Redmayne

Alternate: Selma- David Oyelowo

These are the same nominees from the SAG and Globes, so it’s hard to see anyone coming out of left field in this race.  However, with such a wide field, we may be in for a surprise.  Keaton is a shoe-in to win, and Cumberbatch and Redmayne are shoe-ins to lose to him.  The last two nominations could just be the exact same as the SAG as listed above, or we could see a surprise sneak in from either Bradley Cooper (depending on how many people saw American Sniper) and/or Ralph Fiennes for The Grand Budapest Hotel.  With the later film’s Golden Globe win for Best Picture, it’s apparent that the movie is popular coming down to the wire, and the film is really carried by Fiennes character.  Look for some surprises in this category.

Best Actress

Gone Girl- Rosamund Pike

Still Alice- Julianne Moore

The Theory of Everything- Felicity Jones

Two Days, One Night- Marion Cotillard

Wild- Reese Witherspoon

Alternate: Cake- Jennifer Aniston

I firmly believe Moore is a lock to win over Pike, Jones and Witherspoon.  The last slot seems like it could be Aniston, who was up for a Globe and SAG.  But Cotillard has received the most critical acclaim for her performance in the Dardenne Brothers latest.  The only other option to those two would be Golden Globe winner Amy Adams, however Big Eyes was not necessarily a “for your consideration” campaign.

Best Supporting Actor

Birdman- Ed Norton

Boyhood- Ethan Hawke

Foxcatcher- Mark Ruffalo

The Judge- Robert Duvall

Whiplash- J.K. Simmons

Alternate: Inherent Vice- Josh Brolin

The most shallow competition of any category.  Simmons is a lock to win, and all the others were nominated for both the Globes and the SAGs, and all including Josh Brolin were up at the CCAs.  There really isn’t any other press for anybody else.

Best Supporting Actress

Birdman- Emma Stone

Boyhood- Patricia Arquette

The Imitation Game- Kiera Knightly

Into the Woods- Meryl Streep

Wild- Laura Dern

Alternate: St. Vincent- Naomi Watts

Dern is my outside pick to sneak in.  Expect Streep to get her 19^th nomination (!) but lose to Arquette.  Watts is the alternate based on St. Vincent’s only chance at a nomination is her and she also had a strong performance in Birdman as well.  Jessica Chastain snuck into the Globes shortlist for A Most Violent Year, but the film has not received the amount of attention it was expected to after winning the NBR.

Best Director

Birdman- Alejandro G. Inarritu

Boyhood- Richard Linklater

Foxcatcher- Bennet Miller

The Grand Budapest Hotel- Wes Anderson

Whiplash- Damien Chazelle

Alternate: Selma- Ava Duvernay

Duvernay just made it off my list, thanks to Selma’s bad press, the fact that 12 Years a Slave, another historical film about racism in the south, won last year, and the Academy has a long history of shutting out female directors.  I also left off David Fincher for Gone Girl, simply because I think that would be too predictable.  I was thinking of a couple years ago (2012), when the Best Director nominations were mostly unexpected.  I think we could see some surprises, including Whiplash’s young Chazelle and even Bennet Miller, who won Best Director at Cannes for Foxcatcher.

Best Original Screenplay

Birdman

Boyhood

Foxcatcher

The Grand Budapest Hotel

Nightcrawler

Alternate: Selma

This is the exact same as the CCAs and the WGA award nominations, except for Wihplash is now being considered an adapted screenplay by the Academt.  Selma still has a chance, as it was an inspiring script, but those five films will be vying for talk time between now and the end of February.

Best Adapted Screenplay

Gone Girl

The Imitation Game

The Theory of Everything

Wild

Whiplash

Alternate: Unbroken

With Whiplash in the adapted category now, it seems Inherent Vice is now probably out of the running for a nomination.  I think Wild’s success will continue with recognition here, unless the academy is desperate to throw a bone to Unbroken or Inherent Vice.

Best Animated Feature

Big Hero 6

The Boxtrolls

How to Train Your Dragon 2

The LEGO Movie

The Tale of Princess Kaguya

Alternate: Song of the Sea

With How to Train Your Dragon 2 winning the Golden Globe, it appears to not be a clear victory for The LEGO Movie.  As for the other nominees, Big Hero 6 got excellent press and The Boxtrolls had unprecedented success for a stop motion film.  The Tale of Princess Kaguya is Isao Takahata’s latest film of Japanese folklore may lose out to the slightly more popular Song of the Sea, done by the same people who were nominated in this category for The Secret of Kells in 2009.

Best Foreign-Language Film

Force Majeure (Turist) (Sweden)

Ida (Poland)

Leviathan (Russia)

Tangerines (Estonia)

Wild Tales (Argentina)

Alternate: Timbuktu (Mauritania)

Sweden, Poland and Russia (after Leviathan’s Globe win) are all locks to be up.  The Argentinian movie Wild Tales was nominated for several Goya awards and was in competition at Cannes, and having a name, especially for a Comedy, might benefit it here.  The last slot is up for grabs between two first time nominees, Mauritania and Estonia, I just went with Tangerines based on the Globe nomination.

Best Documentary Feature

The Case Against 8

Citizenfour

Last Days in Vietnam

Life Itself

The Overnighters

Alternate: Keep on Keepin’ On

Now that seems like a pretty well rounded category right?  A legal doc, a war doc, a social/cultural doc, a political/espionage doc and a doc about the Movies themselves.  I just don’t know where there would be room for a music doc like Keep on Keepin On, but then again, a music doc won last year.