Counting down the days, what we learned from the PGA and SAG awards.

I promise no golf puns this time.  Fore real.
A couple of huge surprises this weekend.  The Producer's Guild chose Birdman as Best Picture of the year.  The PGA has always been a close indicator for the Oscar for Best Picture, especially over the last several years.  As many Producers vote for the Academy, it's often we see them push a film from underdog to favorite, such as The King's Speech or The Hurt Locker.  It also solidifies a favorite's chances at an Oscar, like No Country for Old Men and Slumdog Millionaire.
However, the Producers have been wrong before.  2005, they failed to predict Crash's surprise win, and in 2006 picked Little Miss Sunshine, which didn't get much recognition at the Oscars aside from Best Supporting Actor.
It's been a while, and I don't think this really takes away from Boyhood's chances at the Oscar.  Birdman failed to win the Golden Globe for Comedy over The Grand Budapest Hotel, which just got a rerelease in L.A..  Two comedies are likely to split voting, making it harder for either one to win.  If you're looking for a Boyhodd contender, still look to The Imitation Game right now.
The LEGO Movie and Life Itself have both continued their tear at the PGA after having not been nominated by the Academy for Animated Feature and Documentary Feature respectively.

As for the SAG's, one wildcard came out of the vat of predictability, Eddie Redmayne's Stephan Hawking impersonation won over Michael Keaton's Birdman, despite the film winning Best Cast.
The SAG's are much stronger at pushing underdogs to favorites, and very rarely does someone win a SAG and a Golden Globe for Best Actor in a Drama and LOSE the Oscar.  In fact, it's only ever happened to Russell Crowe for A Beautiful Mind, after he had just won a Best Actor Oscar the previous year for Gladiator while having LOST both the other categories for that film.  He was also up against Denzel Washington, who had never won Best Actor before, although he did win Supporting Actor previously for Glory.

So this really does arouse some questions.  is Eddie Redmayne the favorite?  Is this race as close as Russell and Denzel?  I believe so, and the most real scenario I can see playing out is this:
Birdman does not win picture, but Keaton wins Actor, the movie wins original screenplay and cinematography and we forget The Theory of Everything ever existed.

Or, just to change the narrative, some may opt to give Birdman picture and Redmayne actor to spread around the love that way.  We'll see over the next few weeks if that continues to be the narrative.  The big indicator is always the DGA.  if Iñarritu wins that, I would say go with Birdman and Redmayne.

More of the good stuff next week.