Counting down the days, what we learned from the PGA and SAG awards.

I promise no golf puns this time.  Fore real.
A couple of huge surprises this weekend.  The Producer's Guild chose Birdman as Best Picture of the year.  The PGA has always been a close indicator for the Oscar for Best Picture, especially over the last several years.  As many Producers vote for the Academy, it's often we see them push a film from underdog to favorite, such as The King's Speech or The Hurt Locker.  It also solidifies a favorite's chances at an Oscar, like No Country for Old Men and Slumdog Millionaire.
However, the Producers have been wrong before.  2005, they failed to predict Crash's surprise win, and in 2006 picked Little Miss Sunshine, which didn't get much recognition at the Oscars aside from Best Supporting Actor.
It's been a while, and I don't think this really takes away from Boyhood's chances at the Oscar.  Birdman failed to win the Golden Globe for Comedy over The Grand Budapest Hotel, which just got a rerelease in L.A..  Two comedies are likely to split voting, making it harder for either one to win.  If you're looking for a Boyhodd contender, still look to The Imitation Game right now.
The LEGO Movie and Life Itself have both continued their tear at the PGA after having not been nominated by the Academy for Animated Feature and Documentary Feature respectively.

As for the SAG's, one wildcard came out of the vat of predictability, Eddie Redmayne's Stephan Hawking impersonation won over Michael Keaton's Birdman, despite the film winning Best Cast.
The SAG's are much stronger at pushing underdogs to favorites, and very rarely does someone win a SAG and a Golden Globe for Best Actor in a Drama and LOSE the Oscar.  In fact, it's only ever happened to Russell Crowe for A Beautiful Mind, after he had just won a Best Actor Oscar the previous year for Gladiator while having LOST both the other categories for that film.  He was also up against Denzel Washington, who had never won Best Actor before, although he did win Supporting Actor previously for Glory.

So this really does arouse some questions.  is Eddie Redmayne the favorite?  Is this race as close as Russell and Denzel?  I believe so, and the most real scenario I can see playing out is this:
Birdman does not win picture, but Keaton wins Actor, the movie wins original screenplay and cinematography and we forget The Theory of Everything ever existed.

Or, just to change the narrative, some may opt to give Birdman picture and Redmayne actor to spread around the love that way.  We'll see over the next few weeks if that continues to be the narrative.  The big indicator is always the DGA.  if Iñarritu wins that, I would say go with Birdman and Redmayne.

More of the good stuff next week.

The Real Problem with Diversity at the Oscars...and an idea of how to fix it.

So, I may have been wrong about something.

In my reaction to the 87^th Oscar nominations, I said that if Selma was shut out completely, it might warrant some unwanted backlash.  In truth, actually recognizing it as ONLY a Best Picture contender probably caused more backlash than just ignoring the movie completely.

The problem with the reaction to the lack of ethnic diversity is actually taking away from serious issues that the Academy does have.  The Academy has the right to put up whomever they want, and we as spectators have the option to see the films and watch the ceremony on TV if we so desire.  But to scope frustration that is quite clearly founded in the fact that Selma, a biopic (similar to half of the other nominees in that regard) that had “potential” to be nominated and wasn’t, is ridiculous.  The argument has as much standing as me saying how frustrated I am at the blind Academy members who didn’t nominate my favorite movie, Boyhood, for ENOUGH awards.  We hear the same cries every year from film fans, and it’s time to look at problems in a new light, if the goal is to not be mad.

Throw out any desire of sympathy and recognition by the Academy for your race/color/national origin.  I’m Greek American, I could be appalled that there were no Greek Americans (like Jennifer Aniston) nominated.  But I’m not.  I have no sympathy for people who don’t have any time of day to look at history as late as last year, when 12 Years a Slave won Best Picture.  Let’s recognize the progress that has been made for Black people in Hollywood.  In the last 15 years we’ve seen almost double the number of black Oscar winners than its entire history prior to that.  Black people have also been a part of many Hollywood formulas for the last 20-30 years.

The truth is, we shouldn’t care if all the nominees are all black or white or anything.  We should focus on films that need recognition.  Selma, one can argue, needs recognition (I have argued that on multiple occasions).  But it doesn’t need recognition because it stars black people, or even because it was directed by a black woman.  The film, AS A FILM, deserves to be recognized over, oh say, other biopics nominated this year.  If you refuse to focus on the merits of the film, and focus on race instead, nothing gets done, and no progress is made. So users of #OscarSoWhite on social media, I ask you kindly, please have a little perspective before you make a statement (lol, like that will happen.)

Especially because, the Academy does have real problems.  Problems that stem beyond race.  The obvious (sorry people but you’re late to the party if you’re just realizing this) lack of diversity in Academy membership means two things, one rather annoying, and one a little more upsetting.  First, Academy members, especially executives, tend to have the same opinions and lifestyles, in addition to generally being the same race and gender.  Lifestyles that include NOT WATCHING MOVIES, or at least not watching many in the theater.   The way the Oscars are, Hollywood Execs, Actors, Directors, Writers who lead rather busy lives, are only exposed to certain films, not all films.  Getting a small film to grab their attention has always been hard.  Many are concerned what their friends and acquaintances are producing, and choose to recognize films, performances and technical aspects of films to help their homies (the ultimate in Hollywood Cronyism).

Now that’s not saying Hollywood is racist.  It’s actually far from it.  But not being able to see a number of films, or lack of will or time to see films has aggressively narrowed the scope of what is nominated, creating a more specific “for-your-consideration” type of Oscar-contender.

The Oscar “type” of film has always shut out the ability for other types of film to be nominated.  This has been driven by the amount of campaigning, and money used therein, to get people across the board in Hollywood to watch these films.  Awards are powerful, and the Oscars are not the only award show guilty of being rendered helpless to campaign financing (although they were the first).  

Look at the Independent Spirit Awards, who, quite obviously and pretentiously, are chasing the rest of the award season by constantly changing the rules as to what is considered an “independent film.”  I never recognize the Spirit Awards on this blog, because a film like Birdman, which was produced for $18 million with an all-star, established cast, an established director and produced by a strong subsidiary of 20^th Century Fox, should not be considered an independent film.  Keep in mind, Regency also produced Gone Girl this year, and I’m not sure if there is any person out there that would constitute THAT as an independent film.

But why is nobody talking about the lack of diversity in genre?  Four of the eight movies are BIOGRAPHIES.  Four of the five lead actors are playing actual people.  This is a trend that has taken over the Oscars in the last twenty years.  Where are Forrest Gump, Rain Man, Rocky and The Godfather?  Replaced by Stephen Hawking, Alan Turing and Chris Kyle.  Not to mention previous winners Ray Charles, Idi Amin, King George VI and Abraham Lincoln.  It seems every year Oscar has its picking of actors doing glorified impressions of real life figures, and actors fighting for the 

roles.   Where is the diversity?

The Academy almost had progress a few years ago, when they first expanded Best Picture to ten films to include popular, big budget blockbusters, but also to shed light (even more-so than other awards) on smaller or different types of films.  For example, animated films such as Up! and Toy Story 3 nabbed Best Picture nominations, when previously an animated film being nominated was relatively unheard of (it had only happened once before).  Science-fiction films like District 9 and Inception that may not have normally been nominated, made it in.  And most importantly, smaller films like An Education or an actual independent film like Winter’s Bone could receive nominations.

You may remember Winter’s Bone as the first movie you saw Jennifer Lawrence in, who in just a few years went on to become the highest grossing Hollywood movie star.  Thankfully there was a time when the Academy was able to recognize more films like that, but that time is passed.

So, we’re stuck with mostly biopics and movies that focus on the life of some sad chaps.  No possible chance for another animated film, the almost-complete shunning of international film, no documentaries, and only one true independent movie this year (Whiplash).  You don’t need to look at this from the scope of race to see there is a problem.

However, the second point to be made is, all of the films have male leads.  Women, who represent 50% of the population and probably more of the movie going audience, have a difficult time receiving equal recognition.  Even a film like Gone Girl, which made a great deal of money, and many (including myself) anticipated it to be up for Best Picture, was relegated to one category, Best Actress (I don’t even want to mention how its female scriptwriter failed to be the first female in history to not be nominated for adapting her own work.)

Now, I would normally group the understanding that having a female lead or having a male lead doesn’t really matter.  As long as your movie is GREAT, you should be considered for Best Picture.  But women have a beef here, as they always have.  Women, let’s be real, have trouble staying relevant.  Unless you’re someone like Meryl Streep or Katherine Hepburn, your career is going to last as long as your looks stay intact.  That’s the way Hollywood is and always has been.  But do the 

Oscars have to be that way?

Until the Academy makes it a point to include different kinds of films, including thrillers like Gone Girl (remember Fatal Attraction was up), comedies like Bridesmaids or international films (like Ida) for Best Picture, there will be less and less of a demand for character studies of women or films discussing the role of women in society.  Even now as big name directors like David Fincher take on these movies, the women still need to fit certain characteristics to fit the “type.”

…Which basically means cry a lot and/or show your boobs.  There was one Best Actress nominee whose role wasn’t based on either.  I can’t…really…remember the name… it was such a small movie…what was it again, or never mind, I forget.

In addition, women have it worse because there is an actual category for best female performance, so the objectivity is actually put under a microscope.  On the flip side, this does help show that there is a sheer lack of variety in roles for women.

As stated before, the Academy has to reach for diversity in genre and style if there is to be a real change.  Even if the voting field is more diverse in gender and race, they will still need a dousing of humiliation to really move the needle.  Let’s not just be impressed by how well someone cries or plays a real life character.  Let’s be impressed by how well someone puts forth new ideas, and challenges the audience.  We can’t just put up whatever movies we are sent in the mail.  There are many individuals with excellent ideas, that push the boundaries and limits of film, and they exist all over the world.  If the Oscars showcase this talent, there will be more of a demand for new ideas, new movies and the ability to sell tickets in untapped ways.  If this doesn’t happen, it remains to be seen if the Oscars are to survive another 87 years.

Oscar Noms

I always thought the Oscars showcased too much collusion and pretentiousness by nominating nine nominees every year to try and spread the most amount of love.

This time, we have… a little more focus.

Only eight Best Picture Nominees and four films leading the way with:

The Imitation Game (8 noms)

Birdman (9 noms)

Boyhood (6 noms)

The Grand Budapest Hotel (9 noms)

The remaining  Best Pic nominees:

The Imitation Game

Selma

The Theory of Everything

Whiplsh

Some may be surprised by the amount of love American Sniper received late in the award season, however Clint Eastwood was NOT nominated.  Instead, the Academy opted to nominate Bennett Miller for Foxcatcher, a surprise to probably everybody except me, who called Miller’s nomination.  However, despite a Director and Original Script nomination, Foxcatcher failed to nab a Best Pic nomination.

American Sniper’s Bradley Cooper continues to have this love affair with everyone else in Holywood, and it pays off with a nomination for Best Actor over a field of other contenders, including Selma’s Oyelowo.

Speaking of Selma, it was not shut out completely.  To show some progressivism, Selma was thrown a bone and given a Best Picture nomination…and that’s pretty much it!  It is also up for Original Song of course.  I thought it was a kind of all-or-nothing kind of deal, but shutting out the film might have unwanted lash back , so perhaps white guilt really did push this movie into the spotlight…never underestimate it’s power.

And Jennifer Aniston NOT being up actually means that nobody saw that movie, and those who did chose not to vote for her.

Finally, the by far the biggest surprise of the morning was The LEGO Movie NOT being nominated for Best Animated Feature.  Many, including myself, thought it was the favorite to win, and as we saw the race get down to really six movies, The LEGO Movie, having come out earliest, was primarily forgotten.  That annoying song in the movie is nominated however, which leads me to believe everything is NOT awesome.

Full list of Oscar noms in the Oscar tab, and more analysis coming 

Oscar Nomination Predictions

Don't forget to check them out live at 5:30 AM this Thursday.  They'll be announcing all categories live, and by they I mean Chris Pine, Alfonso Cuaron and J.J. Abrams, as well as Academy President Cheryl Boone Issacs.

Best Picture Predictions:

Since there is not a set number of nominees, I will just rank them in order of chance to be nominated.

1. Boyhood

2. Birdman

3. The Grand Budapest Hotel

4. The Theory of Everything

5. The Imitation Game

6. Whiplash

7. Gone Girl

8. American Sniper

9. Foxcatcher

10. Selma

11. Nightcrawler

12. Unbroken

Since the Academy changed their rules to the current format, we have seen 9 nominees each year.  I don’t expect this year to be different.  American Sniper had a late surge with it’s late release, but it may be too late to sneak into the top 9.  We can probably put Unbroken out of the discussion as well, since very few are still talking about it.  I would be surprised to not see at least the top 7, as Selma and Foxcatcher are the most vulnerable to be shut out.

*corrected- with American Sniper's DGA nomination, and seeing how there has never been a DGA nominee that has not been nominated for Best Picture since the nomination expansion, I swapped American Sniper to #8 (in other words: IN) and Selma out of the top 9.  Selma does still have a chance, but it's really all or nothing, so I predict it will be OUT of the major races, although may stand to be (pleasantly) surprised. 

Best Actor

Birdman- Michael Keaton

Foxcatcher- Steve Carell

The Imitation Game- Benedict Cumberbatch

Nightcrawler- Jake Gyllenhaal

The Theory of Everything- Eddie Redmayne

Alternate: Selma- David Oyelowo

These are the same nominees from the SAG and Globes, so it’s hard to see anyone coming out of left field in this race.  However, with such a wide field, we may be in for a surprise.  Keaton is a shoe-in to win, and Cumberbatch and Redmayne are shoe-ins to lose to him.  The last two nominations could just be the exact same as the SAG as listed above, or we could see a surprise sneak in from either Bradley Cooper (depending on how many people saw American Sniper) and/or Ralph Fiennes for The Grand Budapest Hotel.  With the later film’s Golden Globe win for Best Picture, it’s apparent that the movie is popular coming down to the wire, and the film is really carried by Fiennes character.  Look for some surprises in this category.

Best Actress

Gone Girl- Rosamund Pike

Still Alice- Julianne Moore

The Theory of Everything- Felicity Jones

Two Days, One Night- Marion Cotillard

Wild- Reese Witherspoon

Alternate: Cake- Jennifer Aniston

I firmly believe Moore is a lock to win over Pike, Jones and Witherspoon.  The last slot seems like it could be Aniston, who was up for a Globe and SAG.  But Cotillard has received the most critical acclaim for her performance in the Dardenne Brothers latest.  The only other option to those two would be Golden Globe winner Amy Adams, however Big Eyes was not necessarily a “for your consideration” campaign.

Best Supporting Actor

Birdman- Ed Norton

Boyhood- Ethan Hawke

Foxcatcher- Mark Ruffalo

The Judge- Robert Duvall

Whiplash- J.K. Simmons

Alternate: Inherent Vice- Josh Brolin

The most shallow competition of any category.  Simmons is a lock to win, and all the others were nominated for both the Globes and the SAGs, and all including Josh Brolin were up at the CCAs.  There really isn’t any other press for anybody else.

Best Supporting Actress

Birdman- Emma Stone

Boyhood- Patricia Arquette

The Imitation Game- Kiera Knightly

Into the Woods- Meryl Streep

Wild- Laura Dern

Alternate: St. Vincent- Naomi Watts

Dern is my outside pick to sneak in.  Expect Streep to get her 19^th nomination (!) but lose to Arquette.  Watts is the alternate based on St. Vincent’s only chance at a nomination is her and she also had a strong performance in Birdman as well.  Jessica Chastain snuck into the Globes shortlist for A Most Violent Year, but the film has not received the amount of attention it was expected to after winning the NBR.

Best Director

Birdman- Alejandro G. Inarritu

Boyhood- Richard Linklater

Foxcatcher- Bennet Miller

The Grand Budapest Hotel- Wes Anderson

Whiplash- Damien Chazelle

Alternate: Selma- Ava Duvernay

Duvernay just made it off my list, thanks to Selma’s bad press, the fact that 12 Years a Slave, another historical film about racism in the south, won last year, and the Academy has a long history of shutting out female directors.  I also left off David Fincher for Gone Girl, simply because I think that would be too predictable.  I was thinking of a couple years ago (2012), when the Best Director nominations were mostly unexpected.  I think we could see some surprises, including Whiplash’s young Chazelle and even Bennet Miller, who won Best Director at Cannes for Foxcatcher.

Best Original Screenplay

Birdman

Boyhood

Foxcatcher

The Grand Budapest Hotel

Nightcrawler

Alternate: Selma

This is the exact same as the CCAs and the WGA award nominations, except for Wihplash is now being considered an adapted screenplay by the Academt.  Selma still has a chance, as it was an inspiring script, but those five films will be vying for talk time between now and the end of February.

Best Adapted Screenplay

Gone Girl

The Imitation Game

The Theory of Everything

Wild

Whiplash

Alternate: Unbroken

With Whiplash in the adapted category now, it seems Inherent Vice is now probably out of the running for a nomination.  I think Wild’s success will continue with recognition here, unless the academy is desperate to throw a bone to Unbroken or Inherent Vice.

Best Animated Feature

Big Hero 6

The Boxtrolls

How to Train Your Dragon 2

The LEGO Movie

The Tale of Princess Kaguya

Alternate: Song of the Sea

With How to Train Your Dragon 2 winning the Golden Globe, it appears to not be a clear victory for The LEGO Movie.  As for the other nominees, Big Hero 6 got excellent press and The Boxtrolls had unprecedented success for a stop motion film.  The Tale of Princess Kaguya is Isao Takahata’s latest film of Japanese folklore may lose out to the slightly more popular Song of the Sea, done by the same people who were nominated in this category for The Secret of Kells in 2009.

Best Foreign-Language Film

Force Majeure (Turist) (Sweden)

Ida (Poland)

Leviathan (Russia)

Tangerines (Estonia)

Wild Tales (Argentina)

Alternate: Timbuktu (Mauritania)

Sweden, Poland and Russia (after Leviathan’s Globe win) are all locks to be up.  The Argentinian movie Wild Tales was nominated for several Goya awards and was in competition at Cannes, and having a name, especially for a Comedy, might benefit it here.  The last slot is up for grabs between two first time nominees, Mauritania and Estonia, I just went with Tangerines based on the Globe nomination.

Best Documentary Feature

The Case Against 8

Citizenfour

Last Days in Vietnam

Life Itself

The Overnighters

Alternate: Keep on Keepin’ On

Now that seems like a pretty well rounded category right?  A legal doc, a war doc, a social/cultural doc, a political/espionage doc and a doc about the Movies themselves.  I just don’t know where there would be room for a music doc like Keep on Keepin On, but then again, a music doc won last year.

72nd Annual Share the Love Fest

One thing I learned from the Globes last night is, the LOSERS don’t get any recognition apart from a free breakfast.  In an attempt to promote nominee awareness, I’ll focus a little on the surprising (and some not so surprising) losers in Beverly Hills last night.

Obviously, after Birdman won Best Screenplay over The Grand Budapest Hotel, we thought it was a shoe-in for Best Picture.  However, the Globes, in the ever popular trend to honor as many movies as possible, with no clear justifying sense of how it’s done but a clear reason why, gave Grand Budapest Best Picture.  That was the closest we were to a true snub.

Best Actor Drama hopefuls that were happy to not be running against Michael Keaton included four people playing real life people, and Jake Gyllenhaal, who was lucky enough to watch his sister win.  Anyway, Dr. King, John Du Pont and Alan Turing all came out losers to Stephan Hawking (in both the films and in life, since Hawking is the only one still alive.)  As I predicted, Eddie Redmayne was the winner for his portrayal in The Theory of Everything.  Just to prove it wasn’t a fluke to just recognize the movie once, the film also won Best Score, for what it’s worth.

Predictably, we heard speeches from winners J.K. Simmons, Patricia Arquette and Julianne Moore.  Also from Michael Keaton, giving Birdman two wins to tie The Theory of Everything and Boyhood, who obviously had a big night winning Best Picture Drama and Best Director.  Julianne Moore did turn out to be a loser as well, in Best Actress Comedy/Muscial for her role in David Cronenberg’s Maps to the Stars, for which she won Best Actress at Cannes in 2014.  Into the Woods’ Emily Blunt was also overlooked in favor of Amy Adams in Big Eyes as Margaret Keane.  A big win for her, although having lost an Oscar nomination five times now, does she even want to be nominated for Oscar this year, or quit while she’s ahead?  Unfortunately, her boring speech didn’t do her any favors either.  Best Speech?  That would have to be Original Song winner “Glory” from Selma:

 

DGA nominations come out tomorrow, Oscars come out on Thursday!