Over the last 19 years, the SAG awards have single-handedly made predicting the Oscars so easy that despite the Academy’s best efforts to be "unpredictable," the Oscars, to many, have fallen irrelevant.
Okay maybe that is too much from someone who loves the Hollywood award season as much as me, but having the SAGs predict nearly every Oscar surprise since it's existence has gotten the entire industry, as well as Oscar enthusiasts watching intently.
Indeed, the Oscar nominations are sure to bring complications when predicting exactly what will win this year. With the absence of Ben Affleck's nomination for Argo, it seemed like the film's chances at Best Picture were over. That changed this weekend.
After a surprising Best Picture win at the Producer's Guild Awards, Argo was honored by the Screen Actor's Guild with their top prize for Best Cast.
The evening at the Shrine auditorium began as always, with two important wins in the supporting acting categories. The first, Tommy Lee Jones, whose performance as Thaddeus Stevens in Lincoln was thought to be lock for an Oscar until Christoph Waltz won the Golden Globe for Django Unchained. Waltz, having not been nominated for a SAG may create a somewhat close race for the Oscar, but, as a general rule, if there is a tight race, you should ALWAYS pick whoever wins the SAG to win the Oscar. Jones began the trend of winners who were not present at the Shrine, perhaps because he didn't want to make the trip to South Central, or perhaps he no longer wanted to be the center of public ridicule for NOT smiling and LOOKING amused (SMDH!).
Also repeating her Globe win, Anne Hathaway looks to be a lock for her brief role in Les Miserables.
After a wonderful tribute to Dick van Dyke, and several painfully predictable TV awards (except for "Downton" DAYUM!), the tight race for Best Actress had a break, when Jennifer Lawrence, who seems to be Harvey Weinstein's darling this year (as she is his only chance at one of his films winning an Oscar), won for Silver Linings Playbook.
In a less tight race, Daniel Day-Lewis is poised to become the first actor ever in Oscars 85 years, to win a third Best Actor.
Although Lincoln seemed to be the huge favorite just two weeks ago, Argo may be close on its heels. The REAL deciding factor will be whether the non-Oscar nominated Ben Affleck wins the Director's Guild Award on Saturday. It is unheard of for Best Picture Oscars to go to films without a Best Director nomination, as it has only happened ONCE since the early 1930s (1989's Driving Miss Daisy), and in each of the last six years the Best Picture winner has also won Best Director.
Such a dilemma begs the quotation from another Oscar Nominee,
Don't forget to check out the updated page on "The Movies" that are nominated this year
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