Predictions for Major Awards

Our Final post pre Oscar is upon us. I've included potential surprises in each of the categories where applicable.

Best Picture

Will Win: Birdman

Should Win: Boyhood

How could Hollywood ever resist an attempt to award a film about entertainment?  Why would any of us ever think that a film about regular people would ever win?  The last film that was close to about a normal person was The Hurt Locker, as each of the last five years the Academy has honored only historical biopics and movies about the movies.  This trend fixes to continue, and the question may is for how long.  This seems to be a frustrating year for the Academy, as everyone is talking phooey amount them almost nonstop this award season, so if they choose a less controversial film, look for Boyhood or ever The Grand Budapest Hotel to take the cake.  But with Birdman’s win at the PGA and DGA, it seems completely obvious that that will be the winner, because those guilds are mostly the same people that will be voting at the Oscars, and not those who choose the Globes and BAFTAs, which Birdman lost.

Best Actor

Will Win: Eddie Redmayne for The Theory of Everything

Should Win: Michael Keaton for Birdman

This is actually a much closer race than many are predicting.  Redmayne seemed to have the race wrapped up shortly after the SAGs, however, with Birdman’s resurgence in the race, it seems weird that voters who have already gone out of their way to be different from the critics and pick Birdman as Best Picture, would not stay with Michael Keaton as Best Actor.  Here’s a little breakdown of the race:

The key is that Hollywood is not doing well financially, and as you may know everything done in America is done because of money.  The academy will most likely use their power to crown Redmayne the new young star of Hollywood, in hopes he can sell tickets in the future, where as Keaton is not expected to be a leading actor in major films.  You still can't count out Keaton because of Birdman's excellent campaign and new-found surge of attention, but if money is on the line, go where the money is.  Always.

Best Actress

Will and Should Win: Julianne Moore for Still Alice

There is going to be a lot of absolute sure-thing winners in this section, and this is one of them.  Julianne Moore has been up now five times and never won.  In fact, she is one of the few actresses to lose twice in the same year for acting.  She was utterly remarkable and it would be a complete sock if she did not win, especially since Witherspoon and Cotillard have already won, and the other two girls are just up for their first time now.  The real bet is if Moore will cry in her acceptance speech or if she will say she feels “honored” to be with the rest of the nominees

Best Supporting Actor

Will and Should Win: J.K. Simmons for Whiplash

Whiplash is an underdog contender in a couple races, but this one is a sure bet.  Simmons has won everything there is to win for a supporting actor up to this point, although he is sort of a lead in the film.  A great role of an antagonist that really delves deep into a relationship unlike one we have seen before in film.  If Simmons, a beloved veteran actor of film, TV and Farmer’s insurance commercials, loses…just, no, he is not going to lose.  Bet the house.

Best Supporting Actress

Will and Should Win: Patricia Arquette for Boyhood

Sadly, this could be the only award Boyhood takes home, but if the film wins nothing else, Arquette will win, as she has won virtually every award possible up till now.  Therefore, if she loses, who wins?  Emma Stone, I guess, but Boyhood has had a late campaign that favors Arquette, so this is a pretty easy one.

Best Director

Will Win: Alejandro G. Inarritu for Birdman

Should Win: Richard Linklater for Boyhood

You can usually predict this one by just looking at who wins the DGA.  Inarritu is pretty much a lock, even though Linklater has won more awards overall.  The other directors have no chance, it’s between these two and I would still be surprised (pleasantly of course) if Linklater won.  The only reason being is that he is more established and has never won, or even been nominated for Best Director before.  Inarritu has, in his slightly shorter career, also identified himself as an auteur, and the Oscars will be ready to crown him Hollywood royalty.

Best Original Screenplay

Will Win: Wes Anderson for The Grand Budapest Hotel

Should Win: Richard Linklater for Boyhood

This race seems close, but in all honesty, I think Grand Budapest is a clear favorite.  It’s fresh off a win at the WGA and is poised to win several Oscars, but Birdman could still sneak after its late surge.  I just think that the writers have already made up their minds between the two, and they just like Wes Anderson as well, who has actually never won in this category, so I would not be surprised if they gave Birdman director and Anderson Best script.

Best Adapted Screenplay

Will Win:  for The Imitation Game

Should Win: Damien Chazelle for Whiplash

Not a great selection for a year with some great adaptations.  The Imitation Game has got to win something, right?  It’s very possible that the Academy has such a desire to spread the love to EVERY movie, and this for be Imitation Game’s chance at an Oscar, but something like The Theory of Everything may take it away.  I doubt it though.  If Gone Girl was up, then there would be a much better race, but understanding that film would involve people thinking about something, so might as well just go with whatever Harvey says.

Best Animated Feature

Will Win: How to Train Your Dragon 2

Should Win: Big Hero 6

Wow, never would’ve imagined this category without The LEGO Movie, but I guess a movie that comes out in February just cannot get nominated anymore.  HTTYD2 is kind of a lock, with Big Hero 6 being a huge underdog contender, whose only chance at winning is appealing to those who don’t want something obvious.  Being that Big Hero 6 is the only other film most voters are likely to have even watched, it has a small chance.

Best Foreign-Language Film

Will Win: Wild Tales (Argentina)

Should Win: Ida (Poland)

This is a tough one.  I just have a hard time believing this race is between two movies with strong religious themes, Ida and Leviathan.  The latter won the Golden Globe and is the handicapper’s odds-on-favorite, but this is my only real surprise pick, Wild Tales, which didn’t have a wide release, is a less challenging film that the other two.  Also, the film was just released again in some markets, and I’ve noticed historically, Foreign Film has been used as sort of a marketing tool for films with upcoming releases, that’s another reason why I’m picking it.

Best Documentary Feature

Will and Should Win: Citizenfour

I’ve heard rumors that Virunga is the underdog big of the bunch.  If that is the case then I guess your Documentary has to be on Netflix to win this category, which is kind of weird.  I think enough people voting have seen and understand that Citizenfour is one of the boldest documentaries ever made, and giving it to anything else would be pretty crazy.

Predictions Part Deux

Best Cinematography

Will and Should Win: Birdman- Emmanuel Lubezki

If there happens to be a hardcore Grand Budapest mini-sweep, Lubezki, who won his first Oscar for last year’s Gravity could be back to being shut out.  I doubt it though, many are seriously gravitating towards Birdman, since it hits so close to home.  None of the others have a chance.

Best Film Editing

Will and Should Win: Boyhood- Sandra Adair

With Birdman not up, probably because the film took about three days to edit, so that leaves space for Boyhood, which really is the best film of the bunch, to take the prize.  Again, Grand Budapest could sneak in if the Academy decides to completely shut out Boyhood because that’s what they want you to think.  Basically, a group of molemen squealing, “do you like us yet America?” Yeah, if you give it to Boyhood.

Best Production Design

Will Win: The Grand Budapest Hotel- Adam Stockhausen, Anna Pinnock

Should Win: Mr. Turner- Suzie Davies, Charlotte Watts

This is quite clear, it seems there a very few real races in the technical categories.  Of course a world outside of the seemingly increasing philistine A.M.P.A.S., Mr. Turner might win, but Grand Budapest had great production design as well.

Best Costume Design

Will Win: The Grand Budapest Hotel- Milena Canonero

Should Win: Into the Woods- Colleen Atwood

This is another easy one, again without Birdman, it seems Grand Budapest will take home the most awards of the evening.

Best Hair/Makeup

Will Win: The Grand Budapest Hotel- Frances Hannon and Mark Coulier

Should Win: Guardians of the Galaxy- Elizabeth Yianni-Georgiou and David White

Another Grand Budapest win, they have at least 3-4 locked up.

Best Sound Mixing

Will and Should Win: American Sniper- John Reitz, Greg Rudloff and Walt Martin

This film has got to win something right?  Well not necessarily, since it’s already won the box office award for the last couple months.  The movie is surely a phenomenon, but Whiplash has a small shot at stealing this one away from Everybody Loves Sniper

Best Sound Editing

Will and Should Win: American Sniper- Alan Robert Murray and Bub Asman

Same thing as above, there is still a shot for a movie like Birdman or even Interstellar to take this, but American Sniper has got to be a clear favorite still at this point.

Best Visual Effects

Will Win: Dawn of the Planet of the Apes – Joe Letteri, Dan Lemmon, Daniel Barrett and Erik Winquist

Should Win: Interstellar- Paul Franklin, Andrew Lockly, Ian Hunter and Scott Fisher

Many are picking Interstellar because it is the only movie with actual thought required to watch it.  I say, to hell with that, Hollywood already thinks for me.  Besides, Dawn of the Planet of the Apes did pretty well with the Visual Effects Society, and there’s no Birdman or anything nominated.  I would be VERY surprised if any of the other films won, even Guardians of the Galaxy, whose only prayer is to have the other two films split somehow.

Predictions...???!!!@@@##$$%

Oscar Predictions Part 1

 

Having been such a long time since my last post, I’ll try to be as drawn out and detailed and lengthy as possible to make up for lost time.  So, today let’s spend several minutes talking about films and songs that last only a handful of minutes.

Best Original Song:

Will and Should Win: “Glory” from Selma

This is pretty much a slam dunk.  It has everything going for it, great use in a movie that is already getting pity votes because this is its only nomination other than Best Picture.  Too bad we couldn’t nominate “Yellow Flicker Beat” to give it some competition. Not as embarrassing to admit than having just realized I subconsciously used a basketball analogy because black people are historically better at basketball (or at least that’s what this email from Spike Lee says).

Best Original Score

Will Win: Alexandre Desplat for The Grand Budapest Hotel

Should Win: Johan Johannsson for The Theory of Everything

This is a close race, The Theory of Everything having won a Golden Globe and BAFTA, while not being even close to as entertaining of a movie as Grand Budapest.  However, Desplat is up twice, so even if he wins, he loses.  That’s pretty sad. But if he wins, it will be the first time after having received 8 Oscar nominations in the last 9 years.  Johannsson has never composed for a film before, but was able to put together a very complex and engaging score, and could be one of the obstacles of a Grand Budapest mini-sweep.  Could be, but also, not.

Best Documentary Short

Will Win: Crisis Hotline: Veterans Press 1

Should Win: The Reaper

This is a pretty easy one.  Crisis Hotline has a couple things going for it: 1) It’s about veterans and helping veterans, and everyone knows that we have to help veterans because it’s the American thing to …blah blah….. and 2) It’s in English, because let’s be honest, who in Hollywood reads anything anymore, let alone a movie!  If that was not a reality, than the Polish doc short, Joanna would have a shot.

Best Live Action Short

Will Win: Boogaloo and Graham

Should Win: Aya

Vegas has The Phone Call at a big favorite in this category.  I just have a hard time believing that they’ll give it to two short films about crisis hotlines.  I guess the only reason is because it’s one of the few in ENGLISH, however, Boogaloo and Graham is in English with English subtitles.  Also, Boogaloo and Graham was funny and sweet, and probably the right choice for Oscar voters.

Best Animated Short

Will and Should Win: The Bigger Picture

Again kind of going against the general concensus on this, but I think The Bigger Picture was so imaginative and perfect for Oscar voters just as a 5 minute work of art. Fetch? Not really that big of a favorite unless nobody took the time to watch them, and that would be ridiculous since it takes less than an hour to watch them all. Also, I don’t know Daisuke Tsitsumi, former Pixar art director’s ties with the Oscar crowd, but if it’s strong, don’t be surprised to see his film The Dam Keeper sneak in.

Ok, so now Birdman is the favorite...

Counting down the days, what we learned from the PGA and SAG awards.

I promise no golf puns this time.  Fore real.
A couple of huge surprises this weekend.  The Producer's Guild chose Birdman as Best Picture of the year.  The PGA has always been a close indicator for the Oscar for Best Picture, especially over the last several years.  As many Producers vote for the Academy, it's often we see them push a film from underdog to favorite, such as The King's Speech or The Hurt Locker.  It also solidifies a favorite's chances at an Oscar, like No Country for Old Men and Slumdog Millionaire.
However, the Producers have been wrong before.  2005, they failed to predict Crash's surprise win, and in 2006 picked Little Miss Sunshine, which didn't get much recognition at the Oscars aside from Best Supporting Actor.
It's been a while, and I don't think this really takes away from Boyhood's chances at the Oscar.  Birdman failed to win the Golden Globe for Comedy over The Grand Budapest Hotel, which just got a rerelease in L.A..  Two comedies are likely to split voting, making it harder for either one to win.  If you're looking for a Boyhodd contender, still look to The Imitation Game right now.
The LEGO Movie and Life Itself have both continued their tear at the PGA after having not been nominated by the Academy for Animated Feature and Documentary Feature respectively.

As for the SAG's, one wildcard came out of the vat of predictability, Eddie Redmayne's Stephan Hawking impersonation won over Michael Keaton's Birdman, despite the film winning Best Cast.
The SAG's are much stronger at pushing underdogs to favorites, and very rarely does someone win a SAG and a Golden Globe for Best Actor in a Drama and LOSE the Oscar.  In fact, it's only ever happened to Russell Crowe for A Beautiful Mind, after he had just won a Best Actor Oscar the previous year for Gladiator while having LOST both the other categories for that film.  He was also up against Denzel Washington, who had never won Best Actor before, although he did win Supporting Actor previously for Glory.

So this really does arouse some questions.  is Eddie Redmayne the favorite?  Is this race as close as Russell and Denzel?  I believe so, and the most real scenario I can see playing out is this:
Birdman does not win picture, but Keaton wins Actor, the movie wins original screenplay and cinematography and we forget The Theory of Everything ever existed.

Or, just to change the narrative, some may opt to give Birdman picture and Redmayne actor to spread around the love that way.  We'll see over the next few weeks if that continues to be the narrative.  The big indicator is always the DGA.  if Iñarritu wins that, I would say go with Birdman and Redmayne.

More of the good stuff next week.

The Real Problem with Diversity at the Oscars...and an idea of how to fix it.

So, I may have been wrong about something.

In my reaction to the 87^th Oscar nominations, I said that if Selma was shut out completely, it might warrant some unwanted backlash.  In truth, actually recognizing it as ONLY a Best Picture contender probably caused more backlash than just ignoring the movie completely.

The problem with the reaction to the lack of ethnic diversity is actually taking away from serious issues that the Academy does have.  The Academy has the right to put up whomever they want, and we as spectators have the option to see the films and watch the ceremony on TV if we so desire.  But to scope frustration that is quite clearly founded in the fact that Selma, a biopic (similar to half of the other nominees in that regard) that had “potential” to be nominated and wasn’t, is ridiculous.  The argument has as much standing as me saying how frustrated I am at the blind Academy members who didn’t nominate my favorite movie, Boyhood, for ENOUGH awards.  We hear the same cries every year from film fans, and it’s time to look at problems in a new light, if the goal is to not be mad.

Throw out any desire of sympathy and recognition by the Academy for your race/color/national origin.  I’m Greek American, I could be appalled that there were no Greek Americans (like Jennifer Aniston) nominated.  But I’m not.  I have no sympathy for people who don’t have any time of day to look at history as late as last year, when 12 Years a Slave won Best Picture.  Let’s recognize the progress that has been made for Black people in Hollywood.  In the last 15 years we’ve seen almost double the number of black Oscar winners than its entire history prior to that.  Black people have also been a part of many Hollywood formulas for the last 20-30 years.

The truth is, we shouldn’t care if all the nominees are all black or white or anything.  We should focus on films that need recognition.  Selma, one can argue, needs recognition (I have argued that on multiple occasions).  But it doesn’t need recognition because it stars black people, or even because it was directed by a black woman.  The film, AS A FILM, deserves to be recognized over, oh say, other biopics nominated this year.  If you refuse to focus on the merits of the film, and focus on race instead, nothing gets done, and no progress is made. So users of #OscarSoWhite on social media, I ask you kindly, please have a little perspective before you make a statement (lol, like that will happen.)

Especially because, the Academy does have real problems.  Problems that stem beyond race.  The obvious (sorry people but you’re late to the party if you’re just realizing this) lack of diversity in Academy membership means two things, one rather annoying, and one a little more upsetting.  First, Academy members, especially executives, tend to have the same opinions and lifestyles, in addition to generally being the same race and gender.  Lifestyles that include NOT WATCHING MOVIES, or at least not watching many in the theater.   The way the Oscars are, Hollywood Execs, Actors, Directors, Writers who lead rather busy lives, are only exposed to certain films, not all films.  Getting a small film to grab their attention has always been hard.  Many are concerned what their friends and acquaintances are producing, and choose to recognize films, performances and technical aspects of films to help their homies (the ultimate in Hollywood Cronyism).

Now that’s not saying Hollywood is racist.  It’s actually far from it.  But not being able to see a number of films, or lack of will or time to see films has aggressively narrowed the scope of what is nominated, creating a more specific “for-your-consideration” type of Oscar-contender.

The Oscar “type” of film has always shut out the ability for other types of film to be nominated.  This has been driven by the amount of campaigning, and money used therein, to get people across the board in Hollywood to watch these films.  Awards are powerful, and the Oscars are not the only award show guilty of being rendered helpless to campaign financing (although they were the first).  

Look at the Independent Spirit Awards, who, quite obviously and pretentiously, are chasing the rest of the award season by constantly changing the rules as to what is considered an “independent film.”  I never recognize the Spirit Awards on this blog, because a film like Birdman, which was produced for $18 million with an all-star, established cast, an established director and produced by a strong subsidiary of 20^th Century Fox, should not be considered an independent film.  Keep in mind, Regency also produced Gone Girl this year, and I’m not sure if there is any person out there that would constitute THAT as an independent film.

But why is nobody talking about the lack of diversity in genre?  Four of the eight movies are BIOGRAPHIES.  Four of the five lead actors are playing actual people.  This is a trend that has taken over the Oscars in the last twenty years.  Where are Forrest Gump, Rain Man, Rocky and The Godfather?  Replaced by Stephen Hawking, Alan Turing and Chris Kyle.  Not to mention previous winners Ray Charles, Idi Amin, King George VI and Abraham Lincoln.  It seems every year Oscar has its picking of actors doing glorified impressions of real life figures, and actors fighting for the 

roles.   Where is the diversity?

The Academy almost had progress a few years ago, when they first expanded Best Picture to ten films to include popular, big budget blockbusters, but also to shed light (even more-so than other awards) on smaller or different types of films.  For example, animated films such as Up! and Toy Story 3 nabbed Best Picture nominations, when previously an animated film being nominated was relatively unheard of (it had only happened once before).  Science-fiction films like District 9 and Inception that may not have normally been nominated, made it in.  And most importantly, smaller films like An Education or an actual independent film like Winter’s Bone could receive nominations.

You may remember Winter’s Bone as the first movie you saw Jennifer Lawrence in, who in just a few years went on to become the highest grossing Hollywood movie star.  Thankfully there was a time when the Academy was able to recognize more films like that, but that time is passed.

So, we’re stuck with mostly biopics and movies that focus on the life of some sad chaps.  No possible chance for another animated film, the almost-complete shunning of international film, no documentaries, and only one true independent movie this year (Whiplash).  You don’t need to look at this from the scope of race to see there is a problem.

However, the second point to be made is, all of the films have male leads.  Women, who represent 50% of the population and probably more of the movie going audience, have a difficult time receiving equal recognition.  Even a film like Gone Girl, which made a great deal of money, and many (including myself) anticipated it to be up for Best Picture, was relegated to one category, Best Actress (I don’t even want to mention how its female scriptwriter failed to be the first female in history to not be nominated for adapting her own work.)

Now, I would normally group the understanding that having a female lead or having a male lead doesn’t really matter.  As long as your movie is GREAT, you should be considered for Best Picture.  But women have a beef here, as they always have.  Women, let’s be real, have trouble staying relevant.  Unless you’re someone like Meryl Streep or Katherine Hepburn, your career is going to last as long as your looks stay intact.  That’s the way Hollywood is and always has been.  But do the 

Oscars have to be that way?

Until the Academy makes it a point to include different kinds of films, including thrillers like Gone Girl (remember Fatal Attraction was up), comedies like Bridesmaids or international films (like Ida) for Best Picture, there will be less and less of a demand for character studies of women or films discussing the role of women in society.  Even now as big name directors like David Fincher take on these movies, the women still need to fit certain characteristics to fit the “type.”

…Which basically means cry a lot and/or show your boobs.  There was one Best Actress nominee whose role wasn’t based on either.  I can’t…really…remember the name… it was such a small movie…what was it again, or never mind, I forget.

In addition, women have it worse because there is an actual category for best female performance, so the objectivity is actually put under a microscope.  On the flip side, this does help show that there is a sheer lack of variety in roles for women.

As stated before, the Academy has to reach for diversity in genre and style if there is to be a real change.  Even if the voting field is more diverse in gender and race, they will still need a dousing of humiliation to really move the needle.  Let’s not just be impressed by how well someone cries or plays a real life character.  Let’s be impressed by how well someone puts forth new ideas, and challenges the audience.  We can’t just put up whatever movies we are sent in the mail.  There are many individuals with excellent ideas, that push the boundaries and limits of film, and they exist all over the world.  If the Oscars showcase this talent, there will be more of a demand for new ideas, new movies and the ability to sell tickets in untapped ways.  If this doesn’t happen, it remains to be seen if the Oscars are to survive another 87 years.